{"id":58209,"date":"2025-11-30T12:00:56","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T09:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=58209"},"modified":"2025-11-30T10:36:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-30T07:36:11","slug":"arthur-hayes-stands-firm-on-his-bold-year-end-bitcoin-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-stands-firm-on-his-bold-year-end-bitcoin-target\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Stands Firm on His Bold Year-End Bitcoin Target"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"269\" data-end=\"728\"><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-issues-harsh-warning-this-coin-could-drop-99\/\"><strong>Arthur Hayes<\/strong><\/a>, co-founder of BitMEX, continues to project a highly bullish outlook for <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-btc-short-term-bottom-signal-is-100k-possible\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> <\/a>despite recent market volatility. Reiterating his year-end target of $250,000, Hayes argues that the decline to $80,600 marked a significant market bottom rather than the start of a deeper downturn. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast, he emphasized that dollar liquidity has reached its lowest point and is now positioned to support renewed appetite for risk assets.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-stands-firm-on-his-bold-year-end-bitcoin-target\/#ETF_Flows_Misinterpreted_by_the_Market\" title=\"ETF Flows Misinterpreted by the Market\">ETF Flows Misinterpreted by the Market<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-stands-firm-on-his-bold-year-end-bitcoin-target\/#Liquidity_Conditions_Begin_to_Stabilize\" title=\"Liquidity Conditions Begin to Stabilize\">Liquidity Conditions Begin to Stabilize<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-stands-firm-on-his-bold-year-end-bitcoin-target\/#Credit_Expansion_Could_Accelerate_in_2026\" title=\"Credit Expansion Could Accelerate in 2026\">Credit Expansion Could Accelerate in 2026<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"730\" data-end=\"771\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"ETF_Flows_Misinterpreted_by_the_Market\"><\/span>ETF Flows Misinterpreted by the Market<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"773\" data-end=\"1294\">According to Hayes, the sharp pullback from $125,000 to $80,000 stemmed largely from a misunderstanding surrounding spot Bitcoin ETF flows. While many investors believed the inflows reflected strong institutional accumulation, Hayes explained that the majority of this activity was tied to arbitrage-driven basis trades rather than long-term buying. Bloomberg data shows that major players such as Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir ranked among the largest holders of BlackRock\u2019s IBIT ETF.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1296\" data-end=\"1733\">These firms, Hayes noted, were not building directional Bitcoin exposure. Instead, they were purchasing the ETF while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. When funding rates collapsed after October 10, these positions were unwound rapidly\u2014resulting in ETF selling and futures repurchasing. Hayes believes retail investors misread this shift as a sudden reversal in institutional sentiment rather than a mechanical trade unwinding.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1735\" data-end=\"1777\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Liquidity_Conditions_Begin_to_Stabilize\"><\/span>Liquidity Conditions Begin to Stabilize<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1779\" data-end=\"2281\">Hayes also pointed to macro liquidity pressures that weighed on the market. Between July and November, the U.S. Treasury raised nearly $1 trillion as it rebuilt its cash balance, while the Federal Reserve continued quantitative tightening. Together, these actions drained close to $1 trillion from dollar money markets. Now, with the Treasury General Account approaching $900 billion\u2014near its stated target\u2014and the Fed halting balance sheet reductions, Hayes sees signs that liquidity is bottoming out.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2283\" data-end=\"2327\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Credit_Expansion_Could_Accelerate_in_2026\"><\/span>Credit Expansion Could Accelerate in 2026<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2329\" data-end=\"2740\">Looking ahead, Hayes expects credit growth to be driven more by commercial banks than by the Federal Reserve. He highlighted JP Morgan\u2019s plans to deploy roughly $1.5 trillion in lending to the industrial sector as an example of how private credit creation may gain momentum in the coming years. In his view, improving liquidity dynamics and future credit expansion together create a strong backdrop for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2742\" data-end=\"2951\">Despite uncertainty across global markets, Hayes remains confident that Bitcoin can surge to $250,000 by December 31\u2014a target he believes is increasingly supported by both structural and macroeconomic factors.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2742\" data-end=\"2951\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, continues to project a highly bullish outlook for Bitcoin despite recent market volatility. Reiterating his year-end target of $250,000, Hayes argues that the decline to $80,600 marked a significant market bottom rather than the start of a deeper downturn. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast, he emphasized that dollar liquidity<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":37470,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[2545,61,944,60,297],"class_list":["post-58209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-btc","tag-etf"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Arthur Hayes Stands Firm on His Bold Year-End Bitcoin Target - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reiterated his year-end target for Bitcoin. What is the price level? 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