{"id":58347,"date":"2025-12-02T11:00:15","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T08:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=58347"},"modified":"2025-12-02T09:27:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T06:27:55","slug":"how-deep-could-bitcoin-btc-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/how-deep-could-bitcoin-btc-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"How Deep Could Bitcoin (BTC) Fall"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"301\" data-end=\"667\">Recent volatility <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/czech-national-bank-governor-bitcoin-fits-portfolios-like-gold\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a> has revived an old question: just how far can the current correction extend? While some market commentators warn that BTC could revisit the $35,000 range, others argue that such a dramatic decline is neither likely nor technically supported. New analysis based on historical behavior and key indicators points toward a shallower downside.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/how-deep-could-bitcoin-btc-fall\/#Why_a_Drop_to_35000_May_Be_Unrealistic\" title=\"Why a Drop to $35,000 May Be Unrealistic\">Why a Drop to $35,000 May Be Unrealistic<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/how-deep-could-bitcoin-btc-fall\/#Bollinger_Bands_Signal_a_Higher_Market_Floor\" title=\"Bollinger Bands Signal a Higher Market Floor\">Bollinger Bands Signal a Higher Market Floor<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/how-deep-could-bitcoin-btc-fall\/#Analysts_Expect_a_Shallower_Correction\" title=\"Analysts Expect a Shallower Correction\">Analysts Expect a Shallower Correction<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/how-deep-could-bitcoin-btc-fall\/#The_Critical_Support_Zone_to_Watch\" title=\"The Critical Support Zone to Watch\">The Critical Support Zone to Watch<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"669\" data-end=\"712\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_a_Drop_to_35000_May_Be_Unrealistic\"><\/span>Why a Drop to $35,000 May Be Unrealistic<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"714\" data-end=\"1016\">Sharp corrections are nothing new for Bitcoin. During the previous cycle, BTC plunged from its $69,000 peak in late 2021 to around $15,500 the following year, marking a drawdown of roughly 77%. However, according to analyst \u201cSykodelic,\u201d the structure of the current cycle does not resemble that period.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1018\" data-end=\"1401\">The analyst explains that major retracements typically follow exceptionally strong expansion phases, which can be measured through indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI). In this cycle, Bitcoin never reached the kind of overheated momentum that preceded previous deep contractions. Because of this, a 70%\u201375% decline appears inconsistent with present market conditions.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1403\" data-end=\"1531\">At the moment, BTC is down about 31% from its October high near $126,000\u2014an entirely ordinary pullback during a broader uptrend.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1403\" data-end=\"1531\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-185407 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/bitcoin-BTC-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"704\" height=\"333\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1533\" data-end=\"1580\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bollinger_Bands_Signal_a_Higher_Market_Floor\"><\/span>Bollinger Bands Signal a Higher Market Floor<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1582\" data-end=\"1833\">A key element of the bullish argument comes from long-term Bollinger Band analysis. Historically, Bitcoin has never closed below the lower band on the monthly timeframe. Even during the intense volatility of 2017, BTC did not break beneath this level.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1835\" data-end=\"2051\">Based on this pattern, Sykodelic argues that even in a severe downturn, the downside may be limited. If the monthly candle slips under the midline, the analyst identifies $55,000 as the most extreme potential bottom.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2053\" data-end=\"2094\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Analysts_Expect_a_Shallower_Correction\"><\/span>Analysts Expect a Shallower Correction<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2096\" data-end=\"2489\">Other experts take an even milder view. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, believes a move to $55,000 is unlikely, citing structural changes in the market. With deeper liquidity, ETF involvement, and broader institutional participation, Ko argues that the old 70%\u201380% drawdowns are no longer a reasonable expectation. His bearish scenario sees Bitcoin retesting only the $65,000\u2013$68,000 region.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2491\" data-end=\"2528\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Critical_Support_Zone_to_Watch\"><\/span>The Critical Support Zone to Watch<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2530\" data-end=\"2761\">Still, not all observers are optimistic. Augustine Fan of SignalPlus warns that losing the support band around $72,000\u2013$75,000 could trigger significant stop-loss cascades and unpredictable market stress due to leveraged positions.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2763\" data-end=\"3152\">At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, having partially recovered from a brief dip toward $84,000 earlier in the week. While opinions differ on how low BTC might fall, many analysts agree that today\u2019s market structure is fundamentally stronger than in previous cycles\u2014potentially setting the stage for a more controlled correction rather than a catastrophic capitulation.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2763\" data-end=\"3152\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recent volatility Bitcoin has revived an old question: just how far can the current correction extend? While some market commentators warn that BTC could revisit the $35,000 range, others argue that such a dramatic decline is neither likely nor technically supported. New analysis based on historical behavior and key indicators points toward a shallower downside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":56879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[15232,61,60,22690,1333],"class_list":["post-58347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bear","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-fall","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Deep Could Bitcoin (BTC) Fall - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Recent volatility of Bitcoin has revived an old question: just how far can the current correction extend? 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