{"id":58453,"date":"2025-12-03T12:00:15","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T09:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=58453"},"modified":"2025-12-03T09:51:48","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T06:51:48","slug":"is-a-bitcoin-year-end-rally-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-bitcoin-year-end-rally-possible\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a Bitcoin Year-End Rally Possible?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"329\" data-end=\"945\">The final weeks of 2025 have brought one of the sharpest sentiment swings the <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/sec-chair-gives-good-news-for-crypto-a-new-era-is-beginning-in-the-u-s\/\"><strong>crypto<\/strong> <\/a>market has seen in years. The Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index dropping to 9 on November 16 signaled deep pessimism, marking one of the most extreme <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cz-warns-investors-as-the-extreme-fear-period-comes-to-an-end\/\"><strong>fear<\/strong> <\/a>readings of the current cycle. Is the rally possible? This stands in stark contrast to November 2024, when the same index surged to 94\u2014one of its highest historical values\u2014indicating an overwhelming sense of greed. Although the indicator is widely used to gauge market psychology, it cannot offer certainties; fear phases can extend unexpectedly, and investor reactions often diverge from textbook patterns.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-bitcoin-year-end-rally-possible\/#A_Red_November_and_the_First_Signals_from_Analysts\" title=\"A Red November and the First Signals from Analysts\">A Red November and the First Signals from Analysts<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-bitcoin-year-end-rally-possible\/#Is_a_Rally_Possible_in_Early_2026\" title=\"Is a Rally Possible in Early 2026?\">Is a Rally Possible in Early 2026?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"947\" data-end=\"1000\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_Red_November_and_the_First_Signals_from_Analysts\"><\/span>A Red November and the First Signals from Analysts<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1002\" data-end=\"1380\">This year, Bitcoin closed November with a pronounced red candle, reflecting a downturn in overall sentiment. Yet the fact that BTC held the 90,000-dollar region suggests that bullish momentum has not entirely vanished. Stabolut CEO Eneko Knorr notes that December and January may play a decisive role in determining whether the market is preparing for a potential \u201csuper cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1382\" data-end=\"1972\">A similar tone is echoed by Bakkt International President Phillip Lord, who argues that recent volatility does not imply the end of the bull market. In his view, the pullback resembles a mid-cycle shakeout rather than a structural breakdown. Despite the Federal Reserve slowing rate cuts and equities showing signs of fatigue, sustained ETF inflows and continued institutional positioning indicate that the bullish framework remains intact. Lord adds that Bitcoin\u2019s ability to reclaim levels above 100,000 dollars will likely depend on maintaining the 83,000 to 86,000-dollar support range. So how about the rally?<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1974\" data-end=\"2007\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_a_Rally_Possible_in_Early_2026\"><\/span>Is a Rally Possible in Early 2026?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2009\" data-end=\"2473\">Market liquidity dynamics may hold the key to Bitcoin\u2019s direction heading into the new year. Liquidity specialist Michael Howell highlights that BTC\u2019s price behavior has become increasingly correlated with global liquidity trends rather than strictly following the four-year halving cycle. Studies placing the correlation between Bitcoin and the Global Liquidity Index in the 0.83\u20130.94 range underscore how significant macro liquidity has become for crypto assets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2475\" data-end=\"2835\">According to Howell, the sharp liquidity peak observed in November provides important context. Bitcoin\u2019s decline ahead of this turning point aligns with historical patterns, as BTC often leads liquidity trends by several weeks. This suggests that the current price weakness could be reflecting expectations of a coming liquidity pullback across global markets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2837\" data-end=\"3282\">Still, Howell points to the possibility of another liquidity expansion around the second quarter of 2026. A slowdown in U.S. monetary contraction, rising excess bank reserves, any supportive intervention from the Federal Reserve, or stronger stimulus efforts from China could all shift conditions in favor of risk assets. Should these catalysts emerge, Bitcoin may find the environmental support needed to regain upward momentum going into 2026.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2837\" data-end=\"3282\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The final weeks of 2025 have brought one of the sharpest sentiment swings the crypto market has seen in years. The Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index dropping to 9 on November 16 signaled deep pessimism, marking one of the most extreme fear readings of the current cycle. Is the rally possible? This stands in stark<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":58037,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,391,640,75,7135],"class_list":["post-58453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-fear-and-greed","tag-fed","tag-liquidity","tag-rally"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is a Bitcoin Year-End Rally Possible? - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is a year-end rally possible for Bitcoin (BTC), what do experts think? 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