{"id":58922,"date":"2025-12-08T14:07:29","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T11:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=58922"},"modified":"2025-12-08T14:08:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-08T11:08:20","slug":"critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/","title":{"rendered":"Critical Liquidity Claim from Former Fed Repo Expert Cabana!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"66\" data-end=\"495\">The U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/gold-continues-its-rise-on-fed-expectations\/\"><strong>Fed<\/strong><\/a>) monetary policy has continued to be the main directional force for global markets over the past two years. The fight against inflation, interest rate hikes, balance sheet reduction (<strong>QT<\/strong>), and tight financial conditions have left markets longing for liquidity for a long time. However, in recent days, some assessments coming from figures close to the Fed suggest that this picture may be changing.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"497\" data-end=\"873\">In particular, the latest remarks from Mark Cabana, a former New York Fed repo expert who is now working at Bank of America, have once again brought the possibility of a new wave of liquidity to the agenda. However, one critical point must be clearly underlined: These assessments are not an official decision for now, but merely Cabana\u2019s projections based on market dynamics.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#What_Does_Mark_Cabanas_Liquidity_Scenario_Suggest\" title=\"What Does Mark Cabana\u2019s Liquidity Scenario Suggest?\">What Does Mark Cabana\u2019s Liquidity Scenario Suggest?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#The_Claim_That_%E2%80%9CQT_Is_Over_the_Liquidity_Tap_May_Be_Reopened%E2%80%9D\" title=\"The Claim That \u201cQT Is Over, the Liquidity Tap May Be Reopened\u201d\">The Claim That \u201cQT Is Over, the Liquidity Tap May Be Reopened\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#What_Would_Be_the_Market_Impact_If_This_Scenario_Occurs\" title=\"What Would Be the Market Impact If This Scenario Occurs?\">What Would Be the Market Impact If This Scenario Occurs?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#What_Do_Institutions_Expect_from_the_Fed\" title=\"What Do Institutions Expect from the Fed?\">What Do Institutions Expect from the Fed?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#Bank_of_Americas_View\" title=\"Bank of America\u2019s View\">Bank of America\u2019s View<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#Morgan_Stanleys_Assessment\" title=\"Morgan Stanley\u2019s Assessment\">Morgan Stanley\u2019s Assessment<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#A_Striking_Message_from_Hassett\" title=\"A Striking Message from Hassett\">A Striking Message from Hassett<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/#What_Do_CME_FedWatch_Data_Say\" title=\"What Do CME FedWatch Data Say?\">What Do CME FedWatch Data Say?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"880\" data-end=\"935\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Does_Mark_Cabanas_Liquidity_Scenario_Suggest\"><\/span>What Does Mark Cabana\u2019s Liquidity Scenario Suggest?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"937\" data-end=\"1153\">According to Mark Cabana, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could put on the table a move to launch approximately $45 billion per month in Treasury bill (T-bill) purchases following this week\u2019s FOMC meeting. It is stated that:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1155\" data-end=\"1358\">\n<li data-start=\"1155\" data-end=\"1260\">\n<p data-start=\"1157\" data-end=\"1260\">$20 billion of this amount could be used to meet reserve needs in line with growing public liabilities,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1261\" data-end=\"1358\">\n<p data-start=\"1263\" data-end=\"1358\">$25 billion could be allocated to replenish reserves that have been drained in the repo market.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1360\" data-end=\"1599\">According to Cabana, this process may not technically be labeled as \u201cQE\u201d (quantitative easing). However, since it would imply balance sheet expansion, it could effectively function as a mechanism that injects new liquidity into the market.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1360\" data-end=\"1599\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-58926 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"394\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-7.jpg 700w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-7-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1606\" data-end=\"1672\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Claim_That_%E2%80%9CQT_Is_Over_the_Liquidity_Tap_May_Be_Reopened%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>The Claim That \u201cQT Is Over, the Liquidity Tap May Be Reopened\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1831\">One of Cabana\u2019s most striking comments is his assessment that the quantitative tightening (QT) process may have effectively come to an end. According to him:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1833\" data-end=\"1970\">\n<li data-start=\"1833\" data-end=\"1917\">\n<p data-start=\"1835\" data-end=\"1917\">At the December meeting, the Fed may not only implement a 25-basis-point rate cut,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1918\" data-end=\"1970\">\n<p data-start=\"1920\" data-end=\"1970\">But may also quietly reopen the liquidity channel.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1972\" data-end=\"2025\">If this scenario materializes, starting from January:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2027\" data-end=\"2099\">\n<li data-start=\"2027\" data-end=\"2072\">\n<p data-start=\"2029\" data-end=\"2072\">Monthly T-bill purchases of $40\u201345 billion,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2073\" data-end=\"2099\">\n<p data-start=\"2075\" data-end=\"2099\">And term repo operations<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2101\" data-end=\"2157\">could begin supplying additional reserves to the market.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2159\" data-end=\"2353\">Even if it is not officially called \u201cQE,\u201d such a step\u2014implying balance sheet expansion\u2014could serve as a strong short-term support factor for equities, crypto assets, and other risky instruments.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2360\" data-end=\"2420\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Would_Be_the_Market_Impact_If_This_Scenario_Occurs\"><\/span>What Would Be the Market Impact If This Scenario Occurs?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2422\" data-end=\"2517\">Such liquidity expansion could technically be reflected in the market through several channels:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2519\" data-end=\"2708\">\n<li data-start=\"2519\" data-end=\"2595\">\n<p data-start=\"2521\" data-end=\"2595\">Treasury bill purchases reduce the use of the RRP (Reverse Repo Facility),<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2596\" data-end=\"2651\">\n<p data-start=\"2598\" data-end=\"2651\">A drawdown in the RRP increases net system liquidity,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2652\" data-end=\"2708\">\n<p data-start=\"2654\" data-end=\"2708\">Rising liquidity strengthens appetite for risk assets.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2710\" data-end=\"2869\">However, with Cabana\u2019s own warning, such temporary liquidity support mechanisms could also lay the groundwork for greater valuation pressures in the long term.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2876\" data-end=\"2921\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Do_Institutions_Expect_from_the_Fed\"><\/span>What Do Institutions Expect from the Fed?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<h4 data-start=\"2923\" data-end=\"2950\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bank_of_Americas_View\"><\/span>Bank of America\u2019s View<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p data-start=\"2952\" data-end=\"3134\">According to Bank of America, even if the Fed continues to use cautious language, markets may begin to price in more aggressive rate cut expectations for January. The bank forecasts:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3136\" data-end=\"3283\">\n<li data-start=\"3136\" data-end=\"3171\">\n<p data-start=\"3138\" data-end=\"3171\">A 25-basis-point cut in December,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3172\" data-end=\"3208\">\n<p data-start=\"3174\" data-end=\"3208\">But also tighter forward guidance,<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3209\" data-end=\"3283\">\n<p data-start=\"3211\" data-end=\"3283\">And the possibility of several dissenting votes in the decision process.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 data-start=\"3285\" data-end=\"3317\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Morgan_Stanleys_Assessment\"><\/span>Morgan Stanley\u2019s Assessment<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p data-start=\"3319\" data-end=\"3596\">Morgan Stanley, taking into account recent Fed statements and market pricing, states that a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting has now become a strong probability. According to the bank, the gap between market expectations and the Fed\u2019s communication is narrowing.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3603\" data-end=\"3638\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_Striking_Message_from_Hassett\"><\/span>A Striking Message from Hassett<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3640\" data-end=\"3897\">Kevin Hassett, one of the White House\u2019s economic advisers, also argues in his assessment of the Fed that the time has come to begin rate cuts in a cautious manner. This view is interpreted as a message in line with the shift signals expected by the markets.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3904\" data-end=\"3938\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Do_CME_FedWatch_Data_Say\"><\/span>What Do CME FedWatch Data Say?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3940\" data-end=\"4095\">Data from the CME FedWatch Tool, one of the most closely followed indicators in the futures market, show that investor expectations are shaping as follows:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4097\" data-end=\"4197\">\n<li data-start=\"4097\" data-end=\"4146\">\n<p data-start=\"4099\" data-end=\"4146\">Probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut: 87.4%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4147\" data-end=\"4197\">\n<p data-start=\"4149\" data-end=\"4197\">Probability of rates being left unchanged: 12.6%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4199\" data-end=\"4312\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">These figures indicate that a rate cut at the December meeting has almost become the \u201cbase case\u201d for the markets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4199\" data-end=\"4312\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-186431 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-faiz-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1023\" height=\"470\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4199\" data-end=\"4312\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">*This content does not constitute investment advice.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4199\" data-end=\"4312\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s (Fed) monetary policy has continued to be the main directional force for global markets over the past two years. The fight against inflation, interest rate hikes, balance sheet reduction (QT), and tight financial conditions have left markets longing for liquidity for a long time. However, in recent days, some assessments coming<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":58925,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2],"tags":[640,16772,26293,24791,2567,8132,24793],"class_list":["post-58922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","category-news","tag-fed","tag-hassett","tag-mark-cabana","tag-qe","tag-qt","tag-rate-cut","tag-treasury-bill"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Critical Liquidity Claim from Former Fed Repo Expert Cabana! - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s (Fed) monetary policy has continued to be the main directional force for global markets over the past two years.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/critical-liquidity-claim-from-former-fed-repo-expert-cabana\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Critical Liquidity Claim from Former Fed Repo Expert Cabana! 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