{"id":59038,"date":"2025-12-09T14:25:24","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T11:25:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=59038"},"modified":"2025-12-09T14:25:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T11:25:24","slug":"bitcoin-warning-the-first-negative-year-since-2022-may-be-approaching","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-warning-the-first-negative-year-since-2022-may-be-approaching\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Warning: The First Negative Year Since 2022 May Be Approaching"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The cryptocurrency markets experienced an extremely volatile period throughout 2025, shaped by record-breaking rallies and sharp sell-offs. <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> (BTC) stood at the very center of this turbulence, reaching a new all-time high during the year while also suffering major pullbacks driven by massive liquidations. This outlook suggests that Bitcoin is at risk of ending the year with a loss for the first time since 2022.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-warning-the-first-negative-year-since-2022-may-be-approaching\/#Bitcoins_2025_Turbulence_Record_Highs_and_Shocking_Crashes_Together\" title=\"Bitcoin\u2019s 2025 Turbulence: Record Highs and Shocking Crashes Together\">Bitcoin\u2019s 2025 Turbulence: Record Highs and Shocking Crashes Together<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-warning-the-first-negative-year-since-2022-may-be-approaching\/#Year-End_Scenario_Will_BTC_Close_Below_80000\" title=\"Year-End Scenario: Will BTC Close Below $80,000?\">Year-End Scenario: Will BTC Close Below $80,000?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-warning-the-first-negative-year-since-2022-may-be-approaching\/#Bitcoin_Now_More_Sensitive_to_Macro_Developments\" title=\"Bitcoin Now More Sensitive to Macro Developments\">Bitcoin Now More Sensitive to Macro Developments<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-warning-the-first-negative-year-since-2022-may-be-approaching\/#Eyes_on_the_FED_Interest_Rate_Signals_Will_Set_the_Direction\" title=\"Eyes on the FED: Interest Rate Signals Will Set the Direction\">Eyes on the FED: Interest Rate Signals Will Set the Direction<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-warning-the-first-negative-year-since-2022-may-be-approaching\/#Overall_Assessment\" title=\"Overall Assessment\">Overall Assessment<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"470\" data-end=\"544\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoins_2025_Turbulence_Record_Highs_and_Shocking_Crashes_Together\"><\/span>Bitcoin\u2019s 2025 Turbulence: Record Highs and Shocking Crashes Together<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"545\" data-end=\"754\">In the first half of the year, the election of crypto-friendly U.S. President Donald Trump gave Bitcoin strong upward momentum. Riding this wave, BTC surpassed $126,000 in early October, setting a new ATH.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"756\" data-end=\"764\">However:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"768\" data-end=\"813\">The new customs tariffs announced in April,<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"816\" data-end=\"885\">Trump\u2019s harsh tariff announcement on Chinese imports on October 10,<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"888\" data-end=\"949\">The domino-effect liquidation of highly leveraged positions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"951\" data-end=\"1192\">triggered historic declines in Bitcoin. The liquidation exceeding $19 billion became the largest in crypto history. In November, BTC experienced its sharpest monthly drop since mid-2021, and investor sentiment deteriorated significantly.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"951\" data-end=\"1192\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-59039 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc-2-300x151.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"860\" height=\"433\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc-2-300x151.jpg 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc-2-1024x515.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc-2-768x386.jpg 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc-2.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1194\" data-end=\"1247\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Year-End_Scenario_Will_BTC_Close_Below_80000\"><\/span>Year-End Scenario: Will BTC Close Below $80,000?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1248\" data-end=\"1312\">Investor expectations for the year-end price continue to weaken.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1316\" data-end=\"1405\">BTC\u2019s probability of closing the year below $80,000 is currently priced at 32%.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1408\" data-end=\"1541\">This ratio was around 40% a few weeks ago, meaning the bearish scenario has weakened slightly but still carries significant risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1543\" data-end=\"1701\">This outlook is discouraging for major institutional players such as Michael Saylor and Strategy, who previously projected a rise toward $150,000.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1543\" data-end=\"1701\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-59042 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-8-300x140.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"797\" height=\"372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-8-300x140.jpg 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-8-1024x477.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-8-768x358.jpg 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/fed-8.jpg 1277w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 797px) 100vw, 797px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1543\" data-end=\"1701\">\n<h2 data-start=\"1703\" data-end=\"1756\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_Now_More_Sensitive_to_Macro_Developments\"><\/span>Bitcoin Now More Sensitive to Macro Developments<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1757\" data-end=\"1835\">In 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and equities increased significantly:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1839\" data-end=\"1876\">BTC \u2013 S&amp;P 500 correlation: 0.50<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1879\" data-end=\"1917\">BTC \u2013 Nasdaq 100 correlation: 0.52<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1919\" data-end=\"2111\">These figures show that Bitcoin is now much more vulnerable to traditional market fluctuations. In particular, movements in AI-related stocks have been progressing in sync with crypto markets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2113\" data-end=\"2140\">Analysts attribute this to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"2144\" data-end=\"2198\">Growing participation of traditional funds in crypto<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2201\" data-end=\"2281\">Bitcoin being increasingly viewed as a \u201crisk asset\u201d by a broader investor base<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2284\" data-end=\"2342\">Macro sentiment influencing both markets in similar ways<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-59041 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/nasdaq-btc-1-300x149.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"830\" height=\"412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/nasdaq-btc-1-300x149.jpg 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/nasdaq-btc-1-768x381.jpg 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/nasdaq-btc-1.jpg 802w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 830px) 100vw, 830px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2344\" data-end=\"2410\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Eyes_on_the_FED_Interest_Rate_Signals_Will_Set_the_Direction\"><\/span>Eyes on the FED: Interest Rate Signals Will Set the Direction<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2411\" data-end=\"2711\">The interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week is seen as a critical turning point for markets. A 25 bps rate cut is currently priced in at 89% probability. The statements made following the decision hold the potential to directly influence Bitcoin\u2019s short-term direction.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2713\" data-end=\"3039\">As the year enters its final weeks, analysts emphasize that expectations for rate cuts, developments in the AI sector, and changes in global risk appetite will be decisive in Bitcoin\u2019s trajectory. Together, these factors represent some of the most important indicators for where the crypto markets may move in the coming days.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3041\" data-end=\"3064\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Overall_Assessment\"><\/span>Overall Assessment<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3065\" data-end=\"3433\">For Bitcoin, 2025 has become a year that practically tested the market\u2019s resilience. Although the year began with record highs, repeated interruptions came from political announcements, customs tariffs, macroeconomic uncertainties, and increased regulatory pressure. As a result, the market experienced both a strong bull rally and severe pullbacks in the same period.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3435\" data-end=\"3870\">At the current stage, the picture is still far from fully recovered. The increasing sensitivity to macro developments, volatility-driven behavior of leveraged positions, and fluctuations in investor confidence keep the risk of Bitcoin ending the year in negative territory alive. According to analysts, this risk is low but not entirely eliminated meaning Bitcoin\u2019s year-end performance still carries a critical level of uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The cryptocurrency markets experienced an extremely volatile period throughout 2025, shaped by record-breaking rallies and sharp sell-offs. Bitcoin (BTC) stood at the very center of this turbulence, reaching a new all-time high during the year while also suffering major pullbacks driven by massive liquidations. This outlook suggests that Bitcoin is at risk of ending the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":53121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,1766,192,393,336,58],"class_list":["post-59038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-blockchain","tag-crypto","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The First Negative Year Since 2022 May Be Approaching BTC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The cryptocurrency markets experienced an extremely volatile period throughout 2025, shaped by record-breaking rallies and sharp sell-offs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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