{"id":59676,"date":"2025-12-17T14:45:50","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T11:45:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=59676"},"modified":"2025-12-17T14:45:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T11:45:50","slug":"is-the-altcoin-season-over-experts-share-their-views","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-altcoin-season-over-experts-share-their-views\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Altcoin Season Over? Experts Share Their Views!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Patience in the cryptocurrency markets is wearing thin. While <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> (BTC) continues to move on its own path, altcoins stubbornly lag behind\u2014prompting investors to ask a worrying question: <em>\u201cIs the legendary altcoin season now just a myth?\u201d<\/em> According to experts, the answer is a clear \u201cNo.\u201d However, the timeline points to a date further out than many expected. For months, crypto investors have been watching the same scenario unfold: Bitcoin rises or moves sideways, while altcoins in portfolios fail to deliver the long-awaited breakout.<\/p>\n<p>Concerns are growing that the eras of massive 5,000% rallies seen in 2017 and 2021 are over. Yet leading macro strategists and analysts argue that the altcoin season is not dead\u2014it has merely been delayed due to elongated business cycles. It appears that the familiar four-year cycle is giving way to a longer and more painful five-year structure.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-altcoin-season-over-experts-share-their-views\/#Raoul_Pal_Warns_%E2%80%9CForget_the_Old_Cycle_Playbook%E2%80%9D\" title=\"Raoul Pal Warns: \u201cForget the Old Cycle Playbook\u201d\">Raoul Pal Warns: \u201cForget the Old Cycle Playbook\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-altcoin-season-over-experts-share-their-views\/#The_Key_Indicator_The_ISM_Index\" title=\"The Key Indicator: The ISM Index\">The Key Indicator: The ISM Index<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-altcoin-season-over-experts-share-their-views\/#What_Does_Technical_Analysis_Say_%E2%80%9CThe_Calm_Before_2020%E2%80%9D\" title=\"What Does Technical Analysis Say? \u201cThe Calm Before 2020\u201d\">What Does Technical Analysis Say? \u201cThe Calm Before 2020\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-altcoin-season-over-experts-share-their-views\/#Current_Situation_What_Does_the_Altcoin_Season_Index_Tell_Us\" title=\"Current Situation: What Does the Altcoin Season Index Tell Us?\">Current Situation: What Does the Altcoin Season Index Tell Us?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-altcoin-season-over-experts-share-their-views\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Raoul_Pal_Warns_%E2%80%9CForget_the_Old_Cycle_Playbook%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>Raoul Pal Warns: \u201cForget the Old Cycle Playbook\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Global Macro Investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says the biggest mistake investors are making is assuming the market will follow the traditional four-year halving cycle exactly as before. According to Pal, the extension of debt maturities between 2021 and 2022 quietly stretched the cycle.<\/p>\n<p>This macroeconomic shift delayed the expected liquidity explosion often referred to in crypto as the \u201cBanana Zone,\u201d the vertical phase where gains accelerate dramatically. Pal argues that this is not a collapse, but simply an extension of the cycle.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Key_Indicator_The_ISM_Index\"><\/span>The Key Indicator: The ISM Index<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pal, along with another prominent strategist, Tom Lee, emphasizes that investors should focus less on price action and more on the ISM Manufacturing Index. Historical data tells a clear story: Whenever the ISM Index rises above 50, Bitcoin\u2014and subsequently Ethereum and altcoins\u2014tends to enter massive rallies.<\/p>\n<p>At present, the market is waiting for this macro indicator to fully mature. Providing a timeline for the altcoin season, Raoul Pal stated:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cOur best estimate is that the rally will continue into late 2026, likely peaking around Q2 2026. That\u2019s when the liquidity cycle reaches its maximum.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Does_Technical_Analysis_Say_%E2%80%9CThe_Calm_Before_2020%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>What Does Technical Analysis Say? \u201cThe Calm Before 2020\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Not only macro strategists but also technical analysts are pointing to a similar outlook. Popular crypto analyst Ash Crypto, using a chart that excludes the top 10 coins by market cap (similar to TOTAL3), identified a striking resemblance. According to the chart, altcoins are currently mirroring the market structure seen before the 2020 bull run.<\/p>\n<p>Prices are holding above a strong long-term support level. However, Ash Crypto cautions investors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Shakeout First: Real rallies never start easily. Sharp pullbacks and liquidations usually occur first to flush out weak hands.<\/li>\n<li>The End of QT: The major rally is expected to begin once the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) ends Quantitative Tightening (QT). When liquidity taps reopen, risk appetite should rise.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If this model plays out again, technical data\u2014like Pal\u2019s macro outlook\u2014also points to 2026.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-59677 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/total-300x153.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"875\" height=\"446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/total-300x153.jpg 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/total-768x392.jpg 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/total.jpg 900w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 875px) 100vw, 875px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Current_Situation_What_Does_the_Altcoin_Season_Index_Tell_Us\"><\/span>Current Situation: What Does the Altcoin Season Index Tell Us?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Putting projections aside, current data confirms that winter is not over yet. The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 37.<\/p>\n<p>For context:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Readings above 75 indicate an \u201cAltcoin Season.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Readings below 25 signal a \u201cBitcoin Season.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Meaning: Bitcoin dominance remains strong, and the market is still far from a true altcoin rally.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>In summary, based on expert opinions and technical data, the altcoin season is not dead\u2014it has simply been extended. Claims that crypto has entered a long-term stagnation phase are challenged by projections pointing toward 2026. For investors, the current strategy appears to be preserving both patience and liquidity, while closely monitoring ISM data and Federal Reserve monetary policy rather than short-term price fluctuations.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4841\" data-end=\"5204\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Patience in the cryptocurrency markets is wearing thin. While Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move on its own path, altcoins stubbornly lag behind\u2014prompting investors to ask a worrying question: \u201cIs the legendary altcoin season now just a myth?\u201d According to experts, the answer is a clear \u201cNo.\u201d However, the timeline points to a date further out<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":36667,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[236,563,393,840,336,58],"class_list":["post-59676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-altcoin","tag-altcoins","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is the Altcoin Season Over? 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