{"id":59703,"date":"2025-12-18T12:00:25","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T09:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=59703"},"modified":"2025-12-18T09:29:06","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T06:29:06","slug":"k33-long-term-bitcoin-selling-pressure-is-nearing-exhaustion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/k33-long-term-bitcoin-selling-pressure-is-nearing-exhaustion\/","title":{"rendered":"K33: Long-Term Bitcoin Selling Pressure Is Nearing Exhaustion"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"424\" data-end=\"763\">After an extended period of distribution, signs are emerging that long-term selling pressure in the <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/if-this-happens-with-bitcoin-btc-we-could-see-it-fall-below-50k\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> <\/a>market may be approaching its limits. According to recent analysis from <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/k33-research-no-blackrock-no-party-for-bitcoin-and-altcoin-etfs\/\"><strong>K33<\/strong> <\/a>Research, the sustained wave of sales driven by early Bitcoin holders appears to be losing momentum, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics ahead.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/k33-long-term-bitcoin-selling-pressure-is-nearing-exhaustion\/#Dormant_Bitcoin_Supply_Is_Gradually_Reactivating\" title=\"Dormant Bitcoin Supply Is Gradually Reactivating\">Dormant Bitcoin Supply Is Gradually Reactivating<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/k33-long-term-bitcoin-selling-pressure-is-nearing-exhaustion\/#More_Than_Just_Technical_Wallet_Movements\" title=\"More Than Just Technical Wallet Movements\">More Than Just Technical Wallet Movements<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/k33-long-term-bitcoin-selling-pressure-is-nearing-exhaustion\/#Historical_Context_and_Institutional_Liquidity\" title=\"Historical Context and Institutional Liquidity\">Historical Context and Institutional Liquidity<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/k33-long-term-bitcoin-selling-pressure-is-nearing-exhaustion\/#Supply_Structure_Shifts_and_Forward_Outlook\" title=\"Supply Structure Shifts and Forward Outlook\">Supply Structure Shifts and Forward Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"765\" data-end=\"816\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dormant_Bitcoin_Supply_Is_Gradually_Reactivating\"><\/span>Dormant Bitcoin Supply Is Gradually Reactivating<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"818\" data-end=\"1126\">In a report dated December 16, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde highlighted a steady decline in Bitcoin supply that had remained untouched for more than two years. Since 2024, approximately 1.6 million BTC have re-entered circulation. At current market prices, this represents roughly $138 billion in value.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1128\" data-end=\"1374\">Lunde interprets this movement as clear evidence of continued on-chain selling by long-term and early-stage investors. These holders, who accumulated Bitcoin at much lower price levels, have been using recent market conditions to realize profits.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1376\" data-end=\"1420\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"More_Than_Just_Technical_Wallet_Movements\"><\/span>More Than Just Technical Wallet Movements<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1422\" data-end=\"1805\">One of the key takeaways from the report is that the scale of reactivated supply cannot be explained solely by technical factors. While events such as the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF, wallet consolidations, or security-related address changes account for part of the activity, K33 argues they fall short of explaining the full magnitude of the supply shift.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1807\" data-end=\"1984\">Instead, the data points to deliberate distribution, with long-term holders gradually transferring coins back into the market rather than simply reorganizing custody structures.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1807\" data-end=\"1984\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-187843 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/bitcoin-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1027\" height=\"477\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1986\" data-end=\"2035\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Historical_Context_and_Institutional_Liquidity\"><\/span>Historical Context and Institutional Liquidity<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2037\" data-end=\"2277\">K33\u2019s analysis places 2024 and 2025 among the largest years on record for long-term Bitcoin supply reactivation, ranking second and third after 2017. However, Lunde emphasizes that the current cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2279\" data-end=\"2634\">While the 2017 cycle was largely driven by ICO participation, altcoin speculation, and protocol incentives, the present environment is shaped by deep institutional liquidity. U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs and expanding corporate treasury demand have created conditions that allow large holders to execute direct, sizable sales with minimal market friction.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2636\" data-end=\"2864\">Several notable transactions underscore this trend, including an 80,000 BTC over-the-counter sale completed in July, a 24,000 BTC whale transaction in August, and an additional 11,000 BTC sold during the October\u2013November period.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2866\" data-end=\"2912\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Supply_Structure_Shifts_and_Forward_Outlook\"><\/span>Supply Structure Shifts and Forward Outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2914\" data-end=\"3272\">K33 estimates that roughly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin aged over one year has returned to circulation this year alone. Increased institutional liquidity has enabled long-term investors to exit positions at six-figure price levels, reducing ownership concentration and establishing new reference prices across a meaningful portion of the circulating supply.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3274\" data-end=\"3648\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Looking ahead, K33 expects selling pressure to gradually ease. With nearly 20% of Bitcoin\u2019s supply reactivated over the past two years, Lunde believes the distribution phase is nearing saturation. If this trend continues, the two-year Bitcoin supply could resume an upward trajectory by late 2026, signaling a transition toward a more durable demand-driven market structure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3274\" data-end=\"3648\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After an extended period of distribution, signs are emerging that long-term selling pressure in the Bitcoin market may be approaching its limits. According to recent analysis from K33 Research, the sustained wave of sales driven by early Bitcoin holders appears to be losing momentum, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics ahead. Dormant Bitcoin Supply<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":53126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,944,60,17685,495,954],"class_list":["post-59703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-btc","tag-k33","tag-wallet","tag-whale"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>K33: Long-Term Bitcoin Selling Pressure Is Nearing Exhaustion - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"K33 Research has offered a noteworthy assessment of the long-standing selling pressure in the Bitcoin market.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/k33-long-term-bitcoin-selling-pressure-is-nearing-exhaustion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"K33: Long-Term Bitcoin Selling Pressure Is Nearing Exhaustion - 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