{"id":59719,"date":"2025-12-18T13:30:02","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T10:30:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=59719"},"modified":"2025-12-18T10:41:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T07:41:52","slug":"bitcoin-rsi-alarm-oversold-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-rsi-alarm-oversold-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin RSI Alarm Signals Upside, Bull Cycle May Extend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"628\" data-end=\"1033\"><strong>Bitcoin price<\/strong> remains under short-term pressure, but the weekly <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> is approaching a level closely watched by investors. According to Global Macro Investor\u2019s head of macro research, Julien Bittel, periods when RSI dropped below 30 historically led to powerful rebounds. Shared data suggests the current pullback reflects a cycle digestion phase rather than the start of a structural bear market.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-rsi-alarm-oversold-signal\/#What_Bitcoin_RSI_Data_Is_Signaling\" title=\"What Bitcoin RSI Data Is Signaling\">What Bitcoin RSI Data Is Signaling<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-rsi-alarm-oversold-signal\/#The_Four-Year_Cycle_Debate_Resurfaces\" title=\"The Four-Year Cycle Debate Resurfaces\">The Four-Year Cycle Debate Resurfaces<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-rsi-alarm-oversold-signal\/#What_Macro_Analysts_Are_Saying\" title=\"What Macro Analysts Are Saying\">What Macro Analysts Are Saying<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-rsi-alarm-oversold-signal\/#Short-Term_Price_Outlook\" title=\"Short-Term Price Outlook\">Short-Term Price Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"1035\" data-end=\"1071\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Bitcoin_RSI_Data_Is_Signaling\"><\/span>What Bitcoin RSI Data Is Signaling<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1073\" data-end=\"1377\">RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset trades in overbought or oversold territory. Readings below 30 typically indicate oversold conditions and increase the probability of a short- to medium-term price reaction. Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions and elevated pullback risk.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1379\" data-end=\"1723\">TradingView data shows Bitcoin\u2019s weekly RSI currently sits just below 37. The last time RSI reached similar levels was December 2022, when Bitcoin formed a bear market bottom near $16,500. Over the following two and a half years, BTC rallied roughly 660%, reaching a new all-time high in October. The broader weekly trend remains firmly intact.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1725\" data-end=\"1764\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Four-Year_Cycle_Debate_Resurfaces\"><\/span>The Four-Year Cycle Debate Resurfaces<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1766\" data-end=\"2103\">Julien Bittel strongly rejects the idea that Bitcoin strictly follows a four-year halving-driven cycle. He argues that historical cycles aligned more closely with public debt refinancing schedules and global liquidity conditions than with halving events themselves. Post-COVID fiscal expansion pushed this cycle roughly one year forward.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2105\" data-end=\"2384\">According to Bittel, when financial conditions, business cycles, and liquidity dynamics are analyzed together, the probability favors a bull market extending well into 2026. This framework helps explain why rising volatility has not yet invalidated the broader bullish structure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2386\" data-end=\"2715\">Bittel further emphasizes that the traditional four-year cycle no longer applies. He attributes this shift to the extension of government debt maturities and the monetization of interest expenses that now exceed GDP growth. This structural change increases the likelihood of a prolonged cycle rather than a premature market peak.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2717\" data-end=\"2749\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Macro_Analysts_Are_Saying\"><\/span>What Macro Analysts Are Saying<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2751\" data-end=\"2982\">Macroeconomic analysts at Milk Road support this interpretation. They argue that short-term oversold signals should never be viewed in isolation. Liquidity conditions and the stage of the business cycle remain the dominant drivers.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2984\" data-end=\"3213\">As long as capital flows continue to improve, these pullbacks tend to evolve into higher-price consolidation phases over time. The biggest mistake, they warn, is assuming every correction marks the beginning of a new bear market.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3215\" data-end=\"3241\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Short-Term_Price_Outlook\"><\/span>Short-Term Price Outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3243\" data-end=\"3548\"><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-short-term-holders-hit-ftx-level-losses\/\">BTC<\/a> has declined 4.2% over the past seven days and is trading near $86,600 at the time of writing. While near-term momentum remains pressured, on-chain and macro indicators suggest the move fits within a broader bullish cycle. Risk appetite appears temporarily reduced rather than structurally broken.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3243\" data-end=\"3548\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin price remains under short-term pressure, but the weekly RSI indicator is approaching a level closely watched by investors. According to Global Macro Investor\u2019s head of macro research, Julien Bittel, periods when RSI dropped below 30 historically led to powerful rebounds. Shared data suggests the current pullback reflects a cycle digestion phase rather than the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":44707,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[657,2],"tags":[26541,26537,16426,26538,26539,26540,26536],"class_list":["post-59719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en","category-news","tag-bitcoin-2026-outlook","tag-bitcoin-macro-cycle","tag-bitcoin-rsi","tag-btc-weekly-chart","tag-crypto-liquidity-cycle","tag-julien-bittel-analysis","tag-oversold-rsi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin RSI Alarm Signals Upside, Bull Cycle May Extend - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s weekly RSI is nearing oversold levels. 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