{"id":59878,"date":"2025-12-19T15:14:51","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T12:14:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=59878"},"modified":"2025-12-19T15:14:51","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T12:14:51","slug":"has-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-been-broken","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-been-broken\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Bitcoin\u2019s Four-Year Cycle Been Broken?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The long-accepted four-year cycle theory in the <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> market has recently come under serious scrutiny. Especially since most of the supply has already been mined and Bitcoin\u2019s price movements increasingly reflect macroeconomic factors, the validity of this classic narrative is now debatable. For crypto investors, the traditional \u201cbuy the halving, sell in the bull\u201d approach no longer provides as clear signals.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-been-broken\/#Why_Was_the_Four-Year_Cycle_So_Strong\" title=\"Why Was the Four-Year Cycle So Strong?\">Why Was the Four-Year Cycle So Strong?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-been-broken\/#What_Really_Drives_Bitcoins_Price\" title=\"What Really Drives Bitcoin\u2019s Price?\">What Really Drives Bitcoin\u2019s Price?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-been-broken\/#Liquidity_ETFs_and_Changing_Dynamics\" title=\"Liquidity, ETFs, and Changing Dynamics\">Liquidity, ETFs, and Changing Dynamics<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-been-broken\/#Where_Does_Bitcoin_Stand_Now\" title=\"Where Does Bitcoin Stand Now?\">Where Does Bitcoin Stand Now?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-been-broken\/#Conclusion\" title=\"Conclusion\">Conclusion<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Was_the_Four-Year_Cycle_So_Strong\"><\/span>Why Was the Four-Year Cycle So Strong?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong>\u2019s four-year cycle is directly linked to the halving mechanism. Every four years, the block reward given to miners is halved, reducing the new BTC supply. In Bitcoin\u2019s early years, this mechanism was extremely effective: when new supply decreased significantly and demand remained constant or increased, strong upward price pressure occurred. Historically, this model worked consistently. After each halving, strong bull markets emerged, followed by sharp corrections, reinforcing the perception that the four-year cycle was almost \u201cinevitable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, the current situation has changed significantly. According to recent data, over 95% of all mineable Bitcoin is already in circulation. The remaining supply will enter the market very slowly over the coming decades. Today, Bitcoin\u2019s annual supply growth is about 1%, even lower than many investors\u2019 perception of scarcity in gold. This raises the critical question: can halving such a limited remaining supply still have the same price impact as before?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-59879 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc5-300x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"970\" height=\"485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc5-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/btc5-768x383.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Really_Drives_Bitcoins_Price\"><\/span>What Really Drives Bitcoin\u2019s Price?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Looking at recent major price movements, Bitcoin\u2019s rises and falls are not solely driven by halvings but also by global liquidity conditions and macroeconomic cycles:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2017: Global economic expansion and abundant liquidity<\/li>\n<li>2020\u20132021: Large-scale post-pandemic money printing and stimulus<\/li>\n<li>2024: Institutional capital inflows due to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In particular, Bitcoin reaching an all-time high in 2024 before the halving occurred clearly breaks the historical cycle narrative. This indicates that Bitcoin is now a more mature asset class.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Liquidity_ETFs_and_Changing_Dynamics\"><\/span>Liquidity, ETFs, and Changing Dynamics<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s price is increasingly tied to global money supply and financial liquidity. During periods of rising liquidity, BTC tends to perform strongly, while tightening phases put downward pressure on it. Spot Bitcoin ETFs add a new dimension to this, influencing price movements independently of the halving cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Another notable point is that recent peaks came with lower market euphoria compared to past bull cycles. This doesn\u2019t mean the cycles have completely disappeared, but that they have become weaker, more complex, and less predictable.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Where_Does_Bitcoin_Stand_Now\"><\/span>Where Does Bitcoin Stand Now?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>In the short term, Bitcoin continues to show a cautious technical outlook. Its price remains below key moving averages, and trading volume is weakening, suggesting reduced investor risk appetite. Some capital has shifted to faster-return assets like AI, robotics, and tech stocks.<\/p>\n<p>However, on the macroeconomic front, conditions are slowly improving. Central banks may approach interest rate cuts, and global liquidity could gradually increase. This could recreate the supportive conditions for Bitcoin seen in past cycles. Increased liquidity and renewed interest in risky assets may provide a more favorable medium- to long-term environment for BTC. Therefore, while the short-term outlook may not promise a strong rally, it is too early to declare the Bitcoin narrative over.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle may not have disappeared entirely, but it is no longer the main factor driving price alone. Today, understanding BTC requires considering the halving alongside global liquidity, ETF flows, and macroeconomic developments. As Bitcoin matures, its cycles are evolving into a more complex and multi-variable structure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4841\" data-end=\"5204\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The long-accepted four-year cycle theory in the Bitcoin market has recently come under serious scrutiny. Especially since most of the supply has already been mined and Bitcoin\u2019s price movements increasingly reflect macroeconomic factors, the validity of this classic narrative is now debatable. For crypto investors, the traditional \u201cbuy the halving, sell in the bull\u201d approach<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":53121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[393,840,847,336,58],"class_list":["post-59878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market","tag-crypto-news","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-cryptocurrency"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Has Bitcoin\u2019s Four-Year Cycle Been Broken?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Especially since most of the supply has already been mined and Bitcoin\u2019s price movements this classic narrative is now debatable.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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