{"id":59887,"date":"2025-12-20T13:00:57","date_gmt":"2025-12-20T10:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=59887"},"modified":"2025-12-20T10:01:57","modified_gmt":"2025-12-20T07:01:57","slug":"has-the-fed-quietly-restarted-quantitative-easing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-the-fed-quietly-restarted-quantitative-easing\/","title":{"rendered":"Has the Fed Quietly Restarted Quantitative Easing?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"55\" data-end=\"409\">Arthur Hayes, one of the most closely followed voices in the crypto market, has once again sparked debate with his assessment of Bitcoin\u2019s medium-term outlook. The CIO of Maelstrom argues that current US monetary policy is being widely misunderstood and that this misinterpretation could become a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin prices in the coming years.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"411\" data-end=\"553\">According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve (<a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-withdraws-2023-crypto-guidance-for-banks\/\"><strong>Fed<\/strong><\/a>) may be engaging in an indirect form of monetary expansion\u2014one that markets have yet to fully price in.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-the-fed-quietly-restarted-quantitative-easing\/#A_%E2%80%9CTechnical%E2%80%9D_Program_With_QE-Like_Effects\" title=\"A \u201cTechnical\u201d Program With QE-Like Effects\">A \u201cTechnical\u201d Program With QE-Like Effects<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-the-fed-quietly-restarted-quantitative-easing\/#%E2%80%9CNot_QE_Just_Money_Creation%E2%80%9D\" title=\"\u201cNot QE, Just Money Creation\u201d\">\u201cNot QE, Just Money Creation\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-the-fed-quietly-restarted-quantitative-easing\/#A_200000_Bitcoin_Scenario_for_2026\" title=\"A $200,000 Bitcoin Scenario for 2026\">A $200,000 Bitcoin Scenario for 2026<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-the-fed-quietly-restarted-quantitative-easing\/#Policy_Uncertainty_as_a_Market_Driver\" title=\"Policy Uncertainty as a Market Driver\">Policy Uncertainty as a Market Driver<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"555\" data-end=\"600\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_%E2%80%9CTechnical%E2%80%9D_Program_With_QE-Like_Effects\"><\/span>A \u201cTechnical\u201d Program With QE-Like Effects<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"602\" data-end=\"948\">At the center of Hayes\u2019 argument is a Federal Reserve mechanism known as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Officially, the Fed describes RMP as a technical liquidity management tool designed to ensure the smooth functioning of the banking system. Hayes, however, believes the real impact closely mirrors that of traditional quantitative easing.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"950\" data-end=\"1397\">He points out that under this framework, the Fed is purchasing roughly $40 billion worth of short-term US Treasury bills each month. While the central bank avoids labeling this as stimulus, Hayes argues that the result is the same: fresh liquidity entering the financial system. Unlike previous <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/are-fed-rate-cut-expectations-increasing\/\"><strong>QE<\/strong> <\/a>programs, RMP does not appear to have a clearly defined cap or end date, which, in his view, makes it even more supportive for risk assets over time.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1399\" data-end=\"1431\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CNot_QE_Just_Money_Creation%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>\u201cNot QE, Just Money Creation\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1433\" data-end=\"1812\">Hayes breaks the process down in simple terms. The Fed creates new money and uses it to buy government debt. The institutions selling those bonds then redeploy the newly created capital\u2014either back into fixed income markets, through lending to hedge funds, or into risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Eventually, that liquidity filters through the broader economy.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1814\" data-end=\"2095\">From Hayes\u2019 perspective, the distinction between QE and RMP is largely semantic. He describes the mechanism bluntly as the monetary printing press operating at full speed. Once investors begin to recognize this dynamic, he believes Bitcoin could respond aggressively to the upside.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2097\" data-end=\"2136\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_200000_Bitcoin_Scenario_for_2026\"><\/span>A $200,000 Bitcoin Scenario for 2026<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2138\" data-end=\"2432\">Despite his long-term optimism, Hayes remains cautious in the near term. He expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $80,000 and $100,000 through the end of 2025. The main reason, he argues, is that markets are still accepting the Fed\u2019s narrative that RMP is not a form of monetary easing.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2434\" data-end=\"2677\">That perception, according to Hayes, could change in early 2026. If investors begin to treat RMP as de facto QE, he expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $124,000 level and potentially accelerate toward $200,000 within the first quarter of that year.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2679\" data-end=\"2719\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Policy_Uncertainty_as_a_Market_Driver\"><\/span>Policy Uncertainty as a Market Driver<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2721\" data-end=\"3071\">Recent Federal Open Market Committee decisions underscore the uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy. A 25-basis-point rate cut, combined with visible disagreements among policymakers, highlights a lack of clear direction. Hayes views this uncertainty not as a threat, but as an opportunity for Bitcoin to strengthen its role as a monetary hedge.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3073\" data-end=\"3243\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">As 2026 approaches, the broader message is clear: Federal Reserve policy\u2014whether openly expansionary or not\u2014may play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin\u2019s next major move.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3073\" data-end=\"3243\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><i>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\"><i>Telegram,\u00a0<\/i><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\"><i>YouTube<\/i><\/a><i>, and\u00a0<\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\"><i>Twitter<\/i><\/a><i>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.io\/news\/\"><i>news<\/i><\/a><i>\u00a0and updates.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Hayes, one of the most closely followed voices in the crypto market, has once again sparked debate with his assessment of Bitcoin\u2019s medium-term outlook. The CIO of Maelstrom argues that current US monetary policy is being widely misunderstood and that this misinterpretation could become a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin prices in the coming years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":31793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[2545,61,640,75,24791,26609,22591],"class_list":["post-59887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-fed","tag-liquidity","tag-qe","tag-quantitive-easing","tag-treasury-bills"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Has the Fed Quietly Restarted Quantitative Easing? - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"According to Hayes, the practical effect of RMP is no different from that of classic quantitative easing (QE) programs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-the-fed-quietly-restarted-quantitative-easing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has the Fed Quietly Restarted Quantitative Easing? 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