{"id":59979,"date":"2025-12-21T16:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-21T13:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=59979"},"modified":"2025-12-21T14:29:57","modified_gmt":"2025-12-21T11:29:57","slug":"bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Faces Bear Market Pressure Amid High Interest Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"597\" data-end=\"915\">Cryptocurrency analyst <strong>Benjamin Cowen<\/strong> emphasizes that <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> recent stagnant trend is not unusual. According to Cowen, current market conditions closely resemble those seen in <strong>2019<\/strong>. High interest rates, weak risk appetite, and declining retail investor interest are strengthening bear market dynamics for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis\/#Market_Analysis_and_Historical_Parallels\" title=\"Market Analysis and Historical Parallels\">Market Analysis and Historical Parallels<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis\/#Critical_Signal_50-Week_Moving_Average\" title=\"Critical Signal: 50-Week Moving Average\">Critical Signal: 50-Week Moving Average<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis\/#Is_Bitcoin_Entering_a_Bear_Market_CryptoQuant_Insights\" title=\"Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? CryptoQuant Insights\">Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? CryptoQuant Insights<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis\/#Retail_Investor_Apathy\" title=\"Retail Investor Apathy\">Retail Investor Apathy<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis\/#Long-Term_Opportunities\" title=\"Long-Term Opportunities\">Long-Term Opportunities<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"917\" data-end=\"959\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Market_Analysis_and_Historical_Parallels\"><\/span>Market Analysis and Historical Parallels<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"961\" data-end=\"1336\">Cowen evaluates Bitcoin\u2019s decline through the lens of the four-year cycle theory and macroeconomic factors. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in the fourth quarter following halving events. Previous cycles in 2013, 2017, 2021, and the current 2025 cycle confirm this trend. However, Cowen highlights that this cycle is also influenced by macro conditions similar to 2019.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1338\" data-end=\"1627\">According to Cowen, the return-on-investment (ROI) curve from the bottom mirrors prior cycles. The 2016\u20132017 cycle lasted roughly 1,067 days, 2020\u20132021 about 1,059 days, and the current cycle around 1,062 days, showing Bitcoin\u2019s cyclicality and historical price behavior remain relevant.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1629\" data-end=\"1670\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Critical_Signal_50-Week_Moving_Average\"><\/span>Critical Signal: 50-Week Moving Average<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1672\" data-end=\"1869\">Cowen notes that Bitcoin\u2019s inability to stay above its 50-week moving average (~$103,000) for several weeks would signal a key market pattern. Historically, similar behavior marked the 2021 peak.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1871\" data-end=\"1928\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_Bitcoin_Entering_a_Bear_Market_CryptoQuant_Insights\"><\/span>Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? CryptoQuant Insights<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"1930\" data-end=\"1954\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Retail_Investor_Apathy\"><\/span>Retail Investor Apathy<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1956\" data-end=\"2147\">Cowen highlights that the lack of an altcoin season underscores reduced retail participation. Social interest and investor behavior mirror the 2019 scenario, suggesting patience is crucial.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2149\" data-end=\"2401\">He also recalls that <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-bear-market-here-bitcoin-demand-shows-signs\/\">BTC<\/a> peaked near the end of monetary tightening in 2019, followed by a weak period. Today, high interest rates continue to pressure risk assets, and even if rates start falling, Bitcoin may not experience an immediate rebound.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2403\" data-end=\"2428\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Long-Term_Opportunities\"><\/span>Long-Term Opportunities<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2430\" data-end=\"2742\">By analyzing past cycles, Cowen points out that patient investors often profit in bear markets. For example, early investors in the 2017 and 2021 cycles gained significant long-term returns despite missing short-term peaks. Similarly, investors who remain patient toward 2026 may find opportunities in Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2430\" data-end=\"2742\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest news and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen emphasizes that Bitcoin recent stagnant trend is not unusual. According to Cowen, current market conditions closely resemble those seen in 2019. High interest rates, weak risk appetite, and declining retail investor interest are strengthening bear market dynamics for Bitcoin. Market Analysis and Historical Parallels Cowen evaluates Bitcoin\u2019s decline through the lens<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":50105,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[8878,108,552,26634,2883,2345,17245,14717,6785],"class_list":["post-59979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-altcoin-season","tag-bear-market","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc-cycle","tag-crypto-analysis","tag-interest-rates","tag-macro-factors","tag-market-dominance","tag-retail-investors"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin Faces Bear Market Pressure Amid High Interest Rates - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analyst Benjamin Cowen sees Bitcoin slow trend as normal, warns high rates and low investor interest may prolong bear conditions.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-bear-market-high-rates-cowen-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin Faces Bear Market Pressure Amid High Interest Rates - 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