{"id":60523,"date":"2025-12-29T14:00:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T11:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=60523"},"modified":"2025-12-29T11:47:35","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T08:47:35","slug":"will-bitcoin-record-its-first-negative-year-after-a-halving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/will-bitcoin-record-its-first-negative-year-after-a-halving\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Bitcoin Record Its First Negative Year After a Halving?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>)<\/strong> finds itself at a decisive crossroads. Annual price data suggests that without a late-stage recovery, Bitcoin may finish the year in negative territory. If this scenario materializes, it would mark a historic deviation from previous post-halving<\/strong> <\/a>cycles.<\/p>\n

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Table of Contents<\/p>\nToggle<\/span><\/path><\/svg><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

  • The Threshold Bitcoin Must Reclaim<\/a><\/li>
  • Sharp Pullback From Record Highs<\/a><\/li>
  • Bitcoin Technical Structure Shows Signs of Weakness<\/a><\/li>
  • Interest Rate Uncertainty Adds Pressure<\/a><\/li>
  • Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n

    <\/span>The Threshold Bitcoin Must Reclaim<\/span><\/h2>\n

    For Bitcoin to end 2025 with a positive annual performance, the price must climb above its opening level of approximately $93,374. Achieving this would require a short-term gain of around 6.24%. Failure to reach that threshold would result in Bitcoin closing the year with a red annual candle\u2014something that has never occurred in the post-halving period.<\/p>\n

    Market observers emphasize that the window for such a rebound is narrowing rapidly. With only a handful of days remaining in the year, the probability of a decisive move higher is diminishing, raising the likelihood that 2025 could become the first negative post-halving year on record.<\/p>\n

    <\/span>Sharp Pullback From Record Highs<\/span><\/h2>\n

    Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in October, surging above $125,000. However, the rally was short-lived. A severe market-wide sell-off followed just days later, triggering heavy liquidation across the crypto sector. As a result, Bitcoin retraced nearly 30% from its peak, finding a local bottom near $80,000 in November.<\/p>\n

    This abrupt reversal reignited debate over whether the long-standing bull market has ended or if the move represents a deeper correction within a broader uptrend.<\/p>\n

    <\/span>Bitcoin Technical Structure Shows Signs of Weakness<\/span><\/h2>\n

    From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been trading below its 365-day moving average since November. This level had previously acted as a key support throughout the structural uptrend that began in 2023. Sustained trading below this indicator is widely interpreted as a sign of weakening momentum and declining trend strength.<\/p>\n

    <\/span>Interest Rate Uncertainty Adds Pressure<\/span><\/h2>\n

    Macroeconomic factors are also influencing market sentiment. The US Federal Reserve implemented three 25-basis-point rate cuts throughout 2025. However, guidance following the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting failed to provide clarity on the path forward.<\/p>\n

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that there is \u201cno risk-free path\u201d for monetary policy, leaving markets uncertain about near-term decisions. According to CME FedWatch data, only 18.8% of participants currently expect an additional rate cut at the January meeting.<\/p>\n

    <\/span>Outlook<\/span><\/h2>\n

    With technical indicators softening and macro uncertainty persisting, Bitcoin\u2019s year-end performance remains highly uncertain. Whether BTC can avoid making history with its first negative post-halving annual close will depend on whether buyers can regain control in the final days of 2025.<\/p>\n

    This content is not investment advice.<\/em><\/p>\n

    What is Bitcoin Halving?<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n