{"id":60583,"date":"2025-12-30T10:30:33","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T07:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=60583"},"modified":"2025-12-30T09:49:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T06:49:15","slug":"is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Broken or Evolving?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"273\" data-end=\"655\">In 2025, <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong>\u00a0typical <strong>four-year cycle<\/strong> became a hot topic. Institutional ETFs, U.S. regulatory changes, and global macro risks are challenging the expected post-halving bull run and correction model. This article explores analysts\u2019 views on whether the cycle is broken or still valid, possible price forecasts, national crypto reserve strategies, and growing corporate demand.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken\/#What_Is_the_4-Year_Cycle\" title=\"What Is the 4-Year Cycle?\">What Is the 4-Year Cycle?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken\/#Is_the_Cycle_Broken\" title=\"Is the Cycle Broken?\">Is the Cycle Broken?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken\/#Is_the_Cycle_Still_Valid\" title=\"Is the Cycle Still Valid?\">Is the Cycle Still Valid?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken\/#Global_Crypto_Reserves_and_Corporate_Demand\" title=\"Global Crypto Reserves and Corporate Demand\">Global Crypto Reserves and Corporate Demand<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken\/#Why_It_Matters\" title=\"Why It Matters\">Why It Matters<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"662\" data-end=\"693\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Is_the_4-Year_Cycle\"><\/span>What Is the 4-Year Cycle?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"694\" data-end=\"855\">Bitcoin four-year cycle is triggered by halving events, which reduce miner rewards by half and slow new supply. Historically, the cycle has three phases:<\/p>\n<ol data-start=\"857\" data-end=\"1285\">\n<li data-start=\"857\" data-end=\"1003\">\n<p data-start=\"860\" data-end=\"1003\">Accumulation Phase: Investors collect Bitcoin as supply tightens. Long-term holders take positions, while new investors enter the market.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1004\" data-end=\"1124\">\n<p data-start=\"1007\" data-end=\"1124\">Bull Run: Approximately 12\u201318 months after accumulation, prices surge and often reach new all-time highs (ATH).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1125\" data-end=\"1285\">\n<p data-start=\"1128\" data-end=\"1285\">Correction \/ Bear Market: After the bull run, prices pull back sharply, followed by a multi-year consolidation as the market resets for the next cycle.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1287\" data-end=\"1424\">\n<p data-start=\"1289\" data-end=\"1424\">\u201cCycles used to give us a roadmap, but the market is now shaped by more complex dynamics,\u201d says Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"1426\" data-end=\"1595\">By 2025, institutional ETFs, corporate Bitcoin reserves, and macro factors are reshaping the classic cycle, making price movements more complex than halving alone.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1602\" data-end=\"1628\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_the_Cycle_Broken\"><\/span>Is the Cycle Broken?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1629\" data-end=\"1784\">Some analysts argue the four-year cycle broke in 2025. Sustained institutional demand and corporate reserves have softened the typical post-halving drop.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1786\" data-end=\"1932\">Grayscale predicts strong macro demand and a supportive U.S. regulatory environment will help Bitcoin reach a new ATH in the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"1934\" data-end=\"2109\">\n<p data-start=\"1936\" data-end=\"2109\">\u201cThe four-year cycle theory is no longer valid,\u201d says Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, revising Bitcoin\u2019s 2026 target to $150,000.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"1936\" data-end=\"2109\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-60584 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Bitcoins-4-year-cycle-1024x652.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"649\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Bitcoins-4-year-cycle-1024x652.png 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Bitcoins-4-year-cycle-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Bitcoins-4-year-cycle-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Bitcoins-4-year-cycle.png 1074w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2116\" data-end=\"2147\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_the_Cycle_Still_Valid\"><\/span>Is the Cycle Still Valid?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2148\" data-end=\"2236\">Other experts believe the cycle continues. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, notes:<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"2237\" data-end=\"2319\">\n<p data-start=\"2239\" data-end=\"2319\">\u201cBitcoin entered a bear market in October 2025, pricing in a slowing economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"2321\" data-end=\"2543\">Rekt Capital says even if the cycle is \u201cbroken,\u201d it may be just leveling up. Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB points out that selling pressure largely comes from 2021 veterans and traders expecting a post-halving bear market.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"2545\" data-end=\"2674\">\n<p data-start=\"2547\" data-end=\"2674\">\u201cAltcoins showed no excitement; cycles sometimes stretch. They haven\u2019t ended\u2014only expectations have shifted,\u201d says Alex Wacy.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h3 data-start=\"2681\" data-end=\"2730\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Global_Crypto_Reserves_and_Corporate_Demand\"><\/span>Global Crypto Reserves and Corporate Demand<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2731\" data-end=\"2986\">By 2025, some countries officially created crypto reserves. Kyrgyzstan was among the first, and the U.S. supported the trend via a March 2025 executive order. Brazil\u2019s Congress also advanced a bill allowing up to 5% of international reserves in Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"2988\" data-end=\"3159\">\n<p data-start=\"2990\" data-end=\"3159\">\u201cIf more countries add Bitcoin to foreign exchange reserves, others may follow due to competitive pressure,\u201d says Chris Kuiper, research VP at Fidelity Digital Assets.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"3161\" data-end=\"3326\">Corporate demand is also rising. <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/strategy-buys-bitcoin-institutional-interest-is-gaining-strength-again\/\">Strategy<\/a> (formerly MicroStrategy) and over 100 public companies now hold crypto, with 50 of them controlling around 1 million BTC.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"3328\" data-end=\"3480\">\n<p data-start=\"3330\" data-end=\"3480\">\u201cSome corporations can use market access to purchase Bitcoin\u2014arbitrage opportunities supported by investment mandates and regulations,\u201d Kuiper adds.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"3482\" data-end=\"3609\">However, risks remain. Bear markets or forced corporate sales could put downward pressure on Bitcoin or other digital assets.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3616\" data-end=\"3636\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_It_Matters\"><\/span>Why It Matters<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3637\" data-end=\"3822\">Bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle, government reserves, and corporate adoption will shape market dynamics in 2026. Investors should monitor these factors when assessing price trends and risk.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3843\" data-end=\"4011\">2025 highlighted questions around Bitcoin\u2019s traditional cycles and showed accelerating demand from nations and corporations. 2026 will test these new norms and risks.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3843\" data-end=\"4011\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for\u00a0<\/em><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 2025, Bitcoin\u00a0typical four-year cycle became a hot topic. Institutional ETFs, U.S. regulatory changes, and global macro risks are challenging the expected post-halving bull run and correction model. This article explores analysts\u2019 views on whether the cycle is broken or still valid, possible price forecasts, national crypto reserve strategies, and growing corporate demand. What Is<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":60585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[11341,26617,10401,840,11634,26827],"class_list":["post-60583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin-cycle","tag-btc-demand","tag-corporate-bitcoin","tag-crypto-market","tag-crypto-reserves","tag-halving-effect"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Broken or Evolving? - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin 4-year cycle is debated in 2025; institutional ETFs and national reserves influence price and market trends.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-broken\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Broken or Evolving? 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