{"id":61567,"date":"2026-01-13T12:00:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T09:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=61567"},"modified":"2026-01-13T09:32:22","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T06:32:22","slug":"jpmorgan-unveils-its-2026-interest-rate-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-unveils-its-2026-interest-rate-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan Unveils Its 2026 Interest Rate Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"392\" data-end=\"819\">While global markets largely expect the US Federal Reserve (<a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/who-will-be-the-new-fed-chair-as-we-enter-2026\/\"><strong>Fed<\/strong><\/a>) to begin easing monetary policy in the coming years, JPMorgan is pushing back against that consensus. According to the Wall Street banking giant, expectations for interest <strong>rate<\/strong> cuts in 2026 may be misplaced. Instead, the bank argues that the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged throughout the year, with the next move potentially being a rate hike rather than a cut.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-unveils-its-2026-interest-rate-outlook\/#No_Rate_Cuts_Expected_in_2026\" title=\"No Rate Cuts Expected in 2026\">No Rate Cuts Expected in 2026<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-unveils-its-2026-interest-rate-outlook\/#Market_Expectations_Tell_a_Different_Story_for_Rate_Cut\" title=\"Market Expectations Tell a Different Story for Rate Cut\">Market Expectations Tell a Different Story for Rate Cut<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-unveils-its-2026-interest-rate-outlook\/#Political_Pressure_and_the_Trump_Factor\" title=\"Political Pressure and the Trump Factor\">Political Pressure and the Trump Factor<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-unveils-its-2026-interest-rate-outlook\/#Rising_Tensions_Between_the_White_House_and_the_Fed\" title=\"Rising Tensions Between the White House and the Fed\">Rising Tensions Between the White House and the Fed<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"821\" data-end=\"854\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"No_Rate_Cuts_Expected_in_2026\"><\/span>No Rate Cuts Expected in 2026<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"856\" data-end=\"1208\">In a client note dated January 9, JPMorgan outlined a macroeconomic scenario that leaves little room for monetary easing. The bank forecasts stronger economic growth and improving labor market conditions in 2026, alongside core inflation remaining above the 3% threshold. This combination, JPMorgan argues, significantly weakens the case for rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1210\" data-end=\"1607\">Chief Economist Michael Feroli emphasized that even under the leadership of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair, convincing the Federal Open Market Committee to lower rates would be challenging given the economic backdrop. JPMorgan\u2019s base case assumes that policy rates remain unchanged throughout 2026, with the first potential rate increase\u201425 basis points\u2014arriving in the third quarter of 2027.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1210\" data-end=\"1607\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-130812 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/jpmorgan.jpeg\" alt=\"JP Morgan LLM Suite\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1609\" data-end=\"1655\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Market_Expectations_Tell_a_Different_Story_for_Rate_Cut\"><\/span>Market Expectations Tell a Different Story for Rate Cut<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1657\" data-end=\"2084\">JPMorgan\u2019s outlook stands in sharp contrast to current market pricing. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool suggests that investors are still positioning for monetary easing. Markets assign a 32% probability to two rate cuts in 2026, while the likelihood of a single cut stands at 25%. Expectations for three rate cuts are priced at 22%, and only an 8% probability is assigned to the Fed keeping rates unchanged for the entire year.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2086\" data-end=\"2221\">This divergence highlights a growing gap between institutional forecasts and investor sentiment regarding the Fed\u2019s future policy path.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2223\" data-end=\"2266\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Political_Pressure_and_the_Trump_Factor\"><\/span>Political Pressure and the Trump Factor<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2268\" data-end=\"2602\">Adding complexity to the outlook is the anticipated appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair by US President Donald Trump in the coming months. The new chair\u2019s four-year term is set to begin in May. Trump has historically advocated for significantly lower interest rates, previously arguing that policy rates should be closer to 1%.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2604\" data-end=\"2764\">At present, the Fed\u2019s benchmark interest rate sits in the 3.5%\u20133.75% range, underscoring the distance between political preferences and current monetary policy.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2766\" data-end=\"2821\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Rising_Tensions_Between_the_White_House_and_the_Fed\"><\/span>Rising Tensions Between the White House and the Fed<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2823\" data-end=\"3268\">Relations between the White House and the central bank have grown increasingly strained. Over the weekend, Fed Chair Jerome Powell disclosed in a video statement that the Department of Justice had requested testimony related to statements he made last year before Congress concerning the cost of renovating Federal Reserve buildings. Trump has previously attempted to use these renovation expenses as grounds for challenging Powell\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3270\" data-end=\"3457\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Together, these developments suggest that the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy decisions in the coming years will be shaped not only by economic data, but also by intensifying political pressure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3270\" data-end=\"3457\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for\u00a0the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While global markets largely expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin easing monetary policy in the coming years, JPMorgan is pushing back against that consensus. According to the Wall Street banking giant, expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 may be misplaced. Instead, the bank argues that the Fed is likely to keep rates<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":47367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[640,10244,2087,2297,8132,3310],"class_list":["post-61567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-fed","tag-interest-rate-cut","tag-jpmorgan","tag-powell","tag-rate-cut","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>JPMorgan Unveils Its 2026 Interest Rate Outlook - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"According to the Wall Street banking giant, expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 may be misplaced. 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