{"id":62243,"date":"2026-01-22T16:30:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T13:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=62243"},"modified":"2026-01-22T11:59:36","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T08:59:36","slug":"analysis-u-s-inflation-is-set-to-pressure-bitcoin-bulls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analysis-u-s-inflation-is-set-to-pressure-bitcoin-bulls\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: U.S. Inflation Is Set to Pressure Bitcoin Bulls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"284\" data-end=\"640\"><strong>U.S.<\/strong> economic conditions remain unsettled. A new analysis by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard, challenges the widely expected \u201crelief phase\u201d priced into crypto markets. While investors anticipate easing <strong>inflation<\/strong>, the report suggests U.S. inflation could climb above 4% this year.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"642\" data-end=\"968\">That scenario undermines the assumption that an era of cheap money is close at hand. For Bitcoin, whose bullish narrative has leaned heavily on falling inflation and faster <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/how-u-s-inflation-data-impacted-gold-silver-and-platinum-prices\/\"><strong>rate cuts<\/strong><\/a>, the timing now looks far less certain. As inflation risks rebuild, the Federal Reserve\u2019s room to ease policy appears increasingly constrained.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analysis-u-s-inflation-is-set-to-pressure-bitcoin-bulls\/#Inflation_Pressures_Are_Re-Emerging\" title=\"Inflation Pressures Are Re-Emerging\">Inflation Pressures Are Re-Emerging<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analysis-u-s-inflation-is-set-to-pressure-bitcoin-bulls\/#Bitcoin_and_Bonds_Face_the_Same_Constraint\" title=\"Bitcoin and Bonds Face the Same Constraint\">Bitcoin and Bonds Face the Same Constraint<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"970\" data-end=\"1009\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Inflation_Pressures_Are_Re-Emerging\"><\/span>Inflation Pressures Are Re-Emerging<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1011\" data-end=\"1319\">According to the analysis, several structural forces are resurfacing. Tariffs introduced during the Trump administration, tighter labor markets, and persistent fiscal deficits are regaining influence. Crucially, the authors argue that importers have not yet fully passed tariff-related costs on to consumers.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1321\" data-end=\"1639\">Posen and Orszag estimate that this delayed cost pass-through could be largely completed by mid-2026. When it is, headline inflation may receive an additional 50 basis point boost. At the same time, immigration policies and widening budget gaps risk offsetting productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1641\" data-end=\"1687\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_and_Bonds_Face_the_Same_Constraint\"><\/span>Bitcoin and Bonds Face the Same Constraint<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1689\" data-end=\"2013\">Rising Treasury yields reinforce this message. The U.S. 10-year yield recently climbed to 4.31%, its highest level in five months, reducing the appeal of risk assets. Analysts at crypto exchange Bitunix warn that easing policy before structural inflation pressures clearly subside could force a sharper adjustment later.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2015\" data-end=\"2226\">Bitcoin bulls continue to price in aggressive rate cuts. However, inflation that remains near or above 4% weakens that thesis. As borrowing costs stay elevated, liquidity-driven rallies become harder to sustain.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2228\" data-end=\"2403\">At this stage, the core risk is not price alone but timing. If inflation fails to cool as expected, the recovery narrative for crypto assets may be delayed rather than denied.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2228\" data-end=\"2403\"><em>You can also freely share you<\/em>r thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the<em>\u00a0latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. economic conditions remain unsettled. A new analysis by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard, challenges the widely expected \u201crelief phase\u201d priced into crypto markets. While investors anticipate easing inflation, the report suggests U.S. inflation could climb above 4% this year. That scenario undermines the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":43965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2],"tags":[5905,15482,27410,15872,27138,26989],"class_list":["post-62243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","category-news","tag-bond-yields","tag-inflation-risk","tag-liquidity-pressure","tag-macro-outlook","tag-market-timing","tag-rate-expectations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Analysis: U.S. Inflation Is Set to Pressure Bitcoin Bulls - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"U.S. inflation may climb above 4%, limiting Fed rate cuts and pressuring Bitcoin bulls as liquidity expectations weaken.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analysis-u-s-inflation-is-set-to-pressure-bitcoin-bulls\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysis: U.S. Inflation Is Set to Pressure Bitcoin Bulls - 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