{"id":62393,"date":"2026-01-25T12:30:09","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T09:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=62393"},"modified":"2026-01-25T11:12:02","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T08:12:02","slug":"us-government-shutdown-alarm-risk-jumps-to-79","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/us-government-shutdown-alarm-risk-jumps-to-79\/","title":{"rendered":"US Government Shutdown Alarm: Risk Jumps to 79%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"1114\" data-end=\"1444\"><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/us-government-shutdown-polymarket-data\/\">Polymarket<\/a> traders are sharply repricing the risk of another <strong>US government<\/strong> shutdown. According to the prediction market, the probability of a shutdown before the end of January has climbed to 77%, marking a 67-point surge in just 24 hours. The move reflects mounting concern over stalled budget negotiations in Washington.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1446\" data-end=\"1727\">The spike comes days after US President Donald Trump suggested that another shutdown remains likely, stating that the country could \u201cend up in another Democrat shutdown.\u201d The timing has reinforced market expectations that political gridlock is once again becoming a near-term risk.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/us-government-shutdown-alarm-risk-jumps-to-79\/#Budget_Standoff_Clouds_Regulatory_Timelines\" title=\"Budget Standoff Clouds Regulatory Timelines\">Budget Standoff Clouds Regulatory Timelines<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/us-government-shutdown-alarm-risk-jumps-to-79\/#Senate_Tensions_Intensify\" title=\"Senate Tensions Intensify\">Senate Tensions Intensify<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/us-government-shutdown-alarm-risk-jumps-to-79\/#Crypto_Industry_Support_Remains_Fragile\" title=\"Crypto Industry Support Remains Fragile\">Crypto Industry Support Remains Fragile<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"1729\" data-end=\"1776\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Budget_Standoff_Clouds_Regulatory_Timelines\"><\/span>Budget Standoff Clouds Regulatory Timelines<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1778\" data-end=\"2160\">The renewed shutdown threat is not limited to fiscal politics. It also casts uncertainty over the CLARITY Act, a major crypto bill designed to bring regulatory clarity to digital assets. Previous delays to the bill were widely linked to the record 43-day US government shutdown in October and November, making the current risk particularly sensitive for the crypto industry.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1778\" data-end=\"2160\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-62394\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/abd-polymarket.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"967\" height=\"552\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/abd-polymarket.png 967w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/abd-polymarket-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/abd-polymarket-768x438.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 967px) 100vw, 967px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2162\" data-end=\"2191\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Senate_Tensions_Intensify\"><\/span>Senate Tensions Intensify<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2193\" data-end=\"2494\">Political pressure increased after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats would not support advancing an appropriations bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security. The statement underscored how fragile negotiations remain, with key funding issues still unresolved.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2496\" data-end=\"2637\">US officials have not ruled out a shutdown scenario, adding to the sense that negotiations could break down rather than move forward quickly.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2639\" data-end=\"2682\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Crypto_Industry_Support_Remains_Fragile\"><\/span>Crypto Industry Support Remains Fragile<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2684\" data-end=\"2918\">The uncertainty has already affected sentiment around the CLARITY Act. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and several industry executives have withdrawn support, arguing that the current draft could be worse than maintaining the status quo.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2920\" data-end=\"3167\">Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn has also flagged unresolved disagreements, particularly around stablecoin yield structures. According to Thorn, these issues remain one of the most divisive points, with no clear compromise yet in sight.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3169\" data-end=\"3416\">As Polymarket odds continue to price in a shutdown, the risk is no longer theoretical. Political deadlock now threatens to delay both fiscal decisions and crypto regulation timelines, keeping markets on edge heading into the final days of January.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3169\" data-end=\"3416\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polymarket traders are sharply repricing the risk of another US government shutdown. According to the prediction market, the probability of a shutdown before the end of January has climbed to 77%, marking a 67-point surge in just 24 hours. The move reflects mounting concern over stalled budget negotiations in Washington. The spike comes days after<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":52984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[657,2],"tags":[1712,5902,12983,27448,26987,4632],"class_list":["post-62393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en","category-news","tag-government-shutdown","tag-market-sentiment","tag-political-uncertainty","tag-polymarket-odds","tag-regulatory-risk","tag-us-government"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US Government Shutdown Alarm: Risk Jumps to 79% - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Polymarket odds show a 79% chance of a US government shutdown as budget talks stall and political uncertainty clouds regulatory timelines.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/us-government-shutdown-alarm-risk-jumps-to-79\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US Government Shutdown Alarm: Risk Jumps to 79% - 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