{"id":62409,"date":"2026-01-25T16:00:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T13:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=62409"},"modified":"2026-01-25T14:26:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T11:26:15","slug":"bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin May Be Repeating the 2021\u20132022 Cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"319\" data-end=\"684\">For the first time in over two years,<strong> Bitcoin<\/strong> has crossed a critical threshold. BTC investors are realizing net losses once again. According to CryptoQuant, this shift became clear over the past 30 days as profit dynamics turned fully negative. Although the market technically remains afloat, on-chain data indicates that the timing now signals a different phase.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"686\" data-end=\"921\">This picture is supported not only by price movements but also by the flow of realized profits and losses. Particularly, losses accumulated since the end of December align with early bear market behaviors observed in previous cycles.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle\/#Why_Did_Profit_Flows_Reverse\" title=\"Why Did Profit Flows Reverse?\">Why Did Profit Flows Reverse?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle\/#Crypto_Market_%E2%80%9CExtreme_Fear%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_Under_Pressure\" title=\"Crypto Market \u201cExtreme Fear\u201d: Bitcoin Under Pressure\">Crypto Market \u201cExtreme Fear\u201d: Bitcoin Under Pressure<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle\/#Dangerous_Similarities_With_the_2021%E2%80%932022_Cycle\" title=\"Dangerous Similarities With the 2021\u20132022 Cycle\">Dangerous Similarities With the 2021\u20132022 Cycle<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle\/#Early_Bear_Market_Signals\" title=\"Early Bear Market Signals\">Early Bear Market Signals<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle\/#Why_Is_Demand_Not_Reacting\" title=\"Why Is Demand Not Reacting?\">Why Is Demand Not Reacting?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"928\" data-end=\"965\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Did_Profit_Flows_Reverse\"><\/span>Why Did Profit Flows Reverse?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"967\" data-end=\"1346\">According to CryptoQuant\u2019s weekly report, <strong>Bitcoin holders<\/strong> have realized net losses totaling 69,000 BTC since December 23. This marks the first 30-day period in which network participants posted net losses. For the first time since October 2023, investors moved from profits to selling at a loss. In other words, holders closed positions at prices lower than their purchase.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1348\" data-end=\"1576\">However, this shift did not happen overnight. On-chain data shows that realized profits have gradually declined since March 2024. As price momentum weakened, the bull phase ended, and holders began realizing lower profits.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1578\" data-end=\"1723\">The critical point is that profits are falling even while prices remain relatively high, signaling a structural shift in investor behavior.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1730\" data-end=\"1790\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Crypto_Market_%E2%80%9CExtreme_Fear%E2%80%9D_Bitcoin_Under_Pressure\"><\/span>Crypto Market \u201cExtreme Fear\u201d: Bitcoin Under Pressure<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<h4 data-start=\"1792\" data-end=\"1848\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Dangerous_Similarities_With_the_2021%E2%80%932022_Cycle\"><\/span>Dangerous Similarities With the 2021\u20132022 Cycle<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p data-start=\"1850\" data-end=\"2120\">Analysts highlight that the current structure bears striking resemblance to the 2021\u20132022 bull-to-bear transition. Back then, net realized profits peaked in January 2021, followed by lower local tops in February and November. The network then entered a net loss phase.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2122\" data-end=\"2285\">Notably, investors realized lower net profits at higher prices, indicating that the market could no longer absorb gains and had entered a distribution phase.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2287\" data-end=\"2498\">Today\u2019s pattern is following a similar trajectory. Net realized profits peaked in January 2024, then fell to lower peaks in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, margins have turned fully negative.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2505\" data-end=\"2538\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Early_Bear_Market_Signals\"><\/span>Early Bear Market Signals<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2540\" data-end=\"2832\">Looking deeper at the data, Bitcoin\u2019s annual net realized profits dropped from 4.4 million<a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/market-trapped-in-extreme-fear-as-bitcoin-pressure-builds\/\"> BTC<\/a> in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC today, a level last seen in March 2024. More importantly, this pace and level of decline nearly mirrors the start of the last bear market in March 2022.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2834\" data-end=\"3130\">Even more striking is the net loss behavior. Current loss patterns almost exactly replicate the first bear phase in March 2022, when price momentum had already weakened and the market was sustained by \u201ccorrection\u201d narratives. On-chain data, however, had already signaled danger well in advance.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3132\" data-end=\"3184\">A similar investor sentiment gap is forming today.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3191\" data-end=\"3226\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Is_Demand_Not_Reacting\"><\/span>Why Is Demand Not Reacting?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3228\" data-end=\"3443\">CryptoQuant and other on-chain sources indicate no significant demand increase from ETFs or spot markets. Even though short-lived improvements occurred, total demand has contracted again over the past 30 days.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3445\" data-end=\"3614\">This suggests a lack of natural buyers to push prices higher. Rising realized losses imply that investors are increasingly moving toward exits rather than waiting.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3445\" data-end=\"3614\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the first time in over two years, Bitcoin has crossed a critical threshold. BTC investors are realizing net losses once again. According to CryptoQuant, this shift became clear over the past 30 days as profit dynamics turned fully negative. Although the market technically remains afloat, on-chain data indicates that the timing now signals a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":58221,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[657,2],"tags":[27457,477,27456,15577,6546,27458],"class_list":["post-62409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en","category-news","tag-bear-market-signals","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-crypto-market-cycle","tag-investor-behavior","tag-on-chain-data","tag-profit-loss-dynamics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin May Be Repeating the 2021\u20132022 Cycle - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin holders are realizing net losses for the first time in years, with on-chain data signaling early-stage bear market conditions.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-may-be-repeating-the-2021-2022-cycle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin May Be Repeating the 2021\u20132022 Cycle - 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