{"id":63258,"date":"2026-02-08T11:30:59","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T08:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=63258"},"modified":"2026-02-08T10:47:40","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T07:47:40","slug":"march-fomc-rate-cut-odds-rise-to-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/march-fomc-rate-cut-odds-rise-to-23\/","title":{"rendered":"March FOMC Rate Cut Odds Rise to 23%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"218\" data-end=\"485\">Markets are now pricing in a 23% probability of a 25-basis-point <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?s=fed+rate\"><strong>rate cut<\/strong><\/a> at the March <strong>FOMC<\/strong> meeting, up from 18.4% on Friday. The sudden shift follows Kevin Warsh\u2019s nomination as the next <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong> chair, reviving concerns over tighter liquidity conditions.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/march-fomc-rate-cut-odds-rise-to-23\/#Warsh_Factor_Markets_Digest_a_More_Hawkish_Fed_Scenario\" title=\"Warsh Factor: Markets Digest a More Hawkish Fed Scenario\">Warsh Factor: Markets Digest a More Hawkish Fed Scenario<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/march-fomc-rate-cut-odds-rise-to-23\/#Crypto_Markets_Feel_the_Pressure_as_Liquidity_Expectations_Shift\" title=\"Crypto Markets Feel the Pressure as Liquidity Expectations Shift\">Crypto Markets Feel the Pressure as Liquidity Expectations Shift<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/march-fomc-rate-cut-odds-rise-to-23\/#Bottom_Line_Small_Cut_Priced_In_Direction_Still_Unclear\" title=\"Bottom Line: Small Cut Priced In, Direction Still Unclear\">Bottom Line: Small Cut Priced In, Direction Still Unclear<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"492\" data-end=\"551\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Warsh_Factor_Markets_Digest_a_More_Hawkish_Fed_Scenario\"><\/span>Warsh Factor: Markets Digest a More Hawkish Fed Scenario<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"553\" data-end=\"685\">Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh was nominated in January by President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"687\" data-end=\"738\">Since then, investor sentiment has turned cautious.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"740\" data-end=\"898\">Crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin says Warsh\u2019s nomination triggered late-January weakness in precious metals and early-February volatility across risk assets.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"900\" data-end=\"1156\">\n<p data-start=\"902\" data-end=\"1156\">\u201cMarkets are digesting Warsh\u2019s views on future Fed policy, especially the balance sheet, which he believes is \u2018trillions larger than it needs to be.\u2019 If balance-sheet reduction accelerates, investors will face a structurally lower-liquidity environment.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"1158\" data-end=\"1220\">In simple terms: less liquidity, tighter financial conditions. Not exactly a friendly setup for risk assets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1158\" data-end=\"1220\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-63259\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-rate-1024x667.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"664\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-rate-1024x667.png 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-rate-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-rate-768x500.png 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-rate.png 1193w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1274\" data-end=\"1341\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Crypto_Markets_Feel_the_Pressure_as_Liquidity_Expectations_Shift\"><\/span>Crypto Markets Feel the Pressure as Liquidity Expectations Shift<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1343\" data-end=\"1403\">Interest-rate policy remains a key driver for crypto prices. Easing financial conditions typically support Bitcoin and altcoins. Tightening cycles, however, reduce leverage, dry up credit, and dampen speculative appetite.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1567\" data-end=\"1664\">Thomas Perfumo, global economist at Kraken, described Warsh\u2019s nomination as a mixed macro signal.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1666\" data-end=\"1840\">On one hand, it hints at policy stability. On the other, it weakens expectations for aggressive liquidity expansion \u2014 a narrative many crypto investors had quietly leaned on.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1842\" data-end=\"2007\">Perfumo noted that Warsh\u2019s potential leadership suggests US liquidity and credit conditions may stabilize rather than loosen, challenging recent bullish assumptions.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2014\" data-end=\"2074\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bottom_Line_Small_Cut_Priced_In_Direction_Still_Unclear\"><\/span>Bottom Line: Small Cut Priced In, Direction Still Unclear<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2076\" data-end=\"2139\">Heading into March, markets are balancing two competing forces.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2141\" data-end=\"2251\">Rate-cut expectations are rising. But the prospect of a more hawkish Fed leadership is tempering enthusiasm.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2253\" data-end=\"2404\">Traders are pricing only a modest 25-bps cut. There\u2019s little conviction behind larger moves. Meanwhile, no clear liquidity expansion story has emerged.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2406\" data-end=\"2490\">That leaves both traditional markets and crypto assets vulnerable in the short term.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2406\" data-end=\"2490\"><em>Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">YouTube<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are now pricing in a 23% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting, up from 18.4% on Friday. The sudden shift follows Kevin Warsh\u2019s nomination as the next Federal Reserve chair, reviving concerns over tighter liquidity conditions. Warsh Factor: Markets Digest a More Hawkish Fed Scenario Former Fed governor Kevin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":53170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[27734,27733,27731,27732,27730],"class_list":["post-63258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-bitcoin-macro-pressure","tag-crypto-liquidity-outlook","tag-fed-rate-cut-expectations","tag-kevin-warsh-nomination","tag-march-fomc-meeting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>March FOMC Rate Cut Odds Rise to 23% - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Traders now price a 23% chance of a 25-bps rate cut at March FOMC. 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