{"id":63584,"date":"2026-02-13T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=63584"},"modified":"2026-02-13T09:33:20","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T06:33:20","slug":"is-bitcoin-at-a-turning-point-has-the-bottom-been-reached","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-at-a-turning-point-has-the-bottom-been-reached\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin at a Turning Point? Has the Bottom Been Reached?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"64\" data-end=\"501\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> is once again approaching levels that, in previous cycles, have coincided with major inflection points. However, analysts caution that current conditions still fall short of the clear capitulation signals typically associated with durable market bottoms. On-chain data suggests the market is hovering between a mid-cycle correction and a deeper structural reset, leaving investors divided on whether the worst has already passed.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-at-a-turning-point-has-the-bottom-been-reached\/#On-Chain_Metrics_Signal_a_%E2%80%9CNeutral_Zone%E2%80%9D\" title=\"On-Chain Metrics Signal a \u201cNeutral Zone\u201d\">On-Chain Metrics Signal a \u201cNeutral Zone\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-at-a-turning-point-has-the-bottom-been-reached\/#Macro_Pressures_Still_in_Play\" title=\"Macro Pressures Still in Play\">Macro Pressures Still in Play<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-bitcoin-at-a-turning-point-has-the-bottom-been-reached\/#Panic_Selling_or_Early_Bottom_Formation\" title=\"Panic Selling or Early Bottom Formation?\">Panic Selling or Early Bottom Formation?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"503\" data-end=\"547\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"On-Chain_Metrics_Signal_a_%E2%80%9CNeutral_Zone%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>On-Chain Metrics Signal a \u201cNeutral Zone\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"549\" data-end=\"812\">Several core indicators \u2014 including Long-Term Holder (<a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-lth-supply-drops-technical-analysis\/\">LTH<\/a>) profitability, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL), and the percentage of supply in profit \u2014 remain stuck in what could be described as an intermediate zone.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"549\" data-end=\"812\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-195999 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bitcoin-lth.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1011\" height=\"606\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"814\" data-end=\"1201\">Historically, definitive <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/clear-warning-from-bloomberg-the-bear-market-has-begun\/\">bear<\/a> market bottoms have occurred when long-term holders were sitting on losses of roughly 30% to 40%. Recent data shows that long-term holder profits have fallen sharply from 142% in October to around breakeven levels. While this marks a significant compression in profitability, it does not yet reflect the type of forced capitulation seen at prior cycle lows.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1203\" data-end=\"1489\">Similarly, the MVRV Z-score has not yet entered the traditional oversold range of -0.4 to -0.7 that has marked historical bottoms. NUPL currently stands near 0.1, whereas previous cycle lows tended to form when investors were experiencing approximately 20% unrealized losses on average.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1491\" data-end=\"1524\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Macro_Pressures_Still_in_Play\"><\/span>Macro Pressures Still in Play<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1526\" data-end=\"1941\">Beyond blockchain data, macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on risk assets. Liquidity conditions remain tight, and Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to economic releases. After stronger-than-expected employment data, markets are now closely watching January inflation figures. An upside surprise could reinforce expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, adding further pressure to digital assets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1943\" data-end=\"2102\">Some traditional financial institutions have projected a potential short-term pullback toward the $50,000\u2013$58,000 range, underscoring lingering downside risks.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2104\" data-end=\"2148\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Panic_Selling_or_Early_Bottom_Formation\"><\/span>Panic Selling or Early Bottom Formation?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2150\" data-end=\"2317\">Not all signals are bearish. The Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index recently plunged to 11 out of 100, indicating extreme fear \u2014 levels often associated with seller exhaustion.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2319\" data-end=\"2598\">Last week, Bitcoin briefly tested the psychological $60,000 support before staging a rapid 19% rebound within 24 hours. During that period, 66,940 BTC flowed into accumulation addresses in a single day, suggesting institutional players actively defended the $60,000\u2013$62,000 zone.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2600\" data-end=\"2788\">Meanwhile, with the MVRV Z-score at 1.2 and Bitcoin trading near its realized cost basis of approximately $55,000, the probability of a sustained breakdown below that level may be limited.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2790\" data-end=\"3077\">Overall, while definitive bottom signals have yet to emerge, growing signs of stabilization indicate that the market may be in the process of building a foundation. Clear confirmation, however, will likely require stronger alignment between on-chain metrics and macroeconomic conditions.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3079\" data-end=\"3119\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em data-start=\"3079\" data-end=\"3119\" data-is-last-node=\"\">This content is not investment advice.<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3079\" data-end=\"3119\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin is once again approaching levels that, in previous cycles, have coincided with major inflection points. However, analysts caution that current conditions still fall short of the clear capitulation signals typically associated with durable market bottoms. On-chain data suggests the market is hovering between a mid-cycle correction and a deeper structural reset, leaving investors divided<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":56133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[15232,61,944,25423,1589,9738],"class_list":["post-63584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bear","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bottom","tag-bull","tag-support-resistance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is Bitcoin at a Turning Point? 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