{"id":63717,"date":"2026-02-16T17:00:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T14:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=63717"},"modified":"2026-02-16T11:30:20","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T08:30:20","slug":"bitcoin-down-22-is-a-2018-scenario-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-down-22-is-a-2018-scenario-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Down 22%: Is a 2018 Scenario Coming?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"339\" data-end=\"595\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> started the year trading around $87,700. Within just a few weeks, it shed roughly $20,000, sliding toward the $68,000 range. On the surface, it looks like a standard correction. But once you dig into the numbers, a different story begins to emerge.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"597\" data-end=\"854\">The first two months of 2026 alone already represent a 22.3% drawdown for <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/why-did-bitcoin-and-gold-silver-fall\/\">BTC<\/a>. If this pace holds, the market could be heading toward its weakest first quarter since 2018. That period is still fresh in memory: nearly a 50% collapse in just three months.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"856\" data-end=\"931\">Short answer? Yes \u2014 it\u2019s on the table.<br data-start=\"894\" data-end=\"897\" \/>The longer answer is more layered.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-down-22-is-a-2018-scenario-coming\/#Q1_statistics_are_flashing_warning_signs\" title=\"Q1 statistics are flashing warning signs\">Q1 statistics are flashing warning signs<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-down-22-is-a-2018-scenario-coming\/#January_and_February_could_both_close_red_for_the_first_time\" title=\"January and February could both close red for the first time\">January and February could both close red for the first time<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-down-22-is-a-2018-scenario-coming\/#%E2%80%9CThis_isnt_a_collapse_%E2%80%94_its_a_classic_correction%E2%80%9D\" title=\"\u201cThis isn\u2019t a collapse \u2014 it\u2019s a classic correction\u201d\">\u201cThis isn\u2019t a collapse \u2014 it\u2019s a classic correction\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-down-22-is-a-2018-scenario-coming\/#The_market_has_paused_%E2%80%94_but_data_flow_is_accelerating\" title=\"The market has paused \u2014 but data flow is accelerating\">The market has paused \u2014 but data flow is accelerating<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"938\" data-end=\"981\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Q1_statistics_are_flashing_warning_signs\"><\/span>Q1 statistics are flashing warning signs<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"983\" data-end=\"1269\">Historically, Bitcoin has closed seven of its thirteen first quarters in the red. The hardest hit came in 2018, with a brutal 49.7% drop. More recent examples include losses of 10.8% in 2020 and 11.8% in 2025 \u2014 figures clearly reflected in <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">CoinGlass<\/span><\/span> records.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1271\" data-end=\"1502\">Crypto analyst <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Daan Trades Crypto<\/span><\/span> noted over the weekend that first quarters are historically volatile by nature. In other words, what unfolds during Q1 often doesn\u2019t translate directly into the rest of the year.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1504\" data-end=\"1651\">There\u2019s another notable detail: Bitcoin has only recorded back-to-back losing first quarters twice \u2014 in 2018 and 2022. Both were bear-market years.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1658\" data-end=\"1721\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"January_and_February_could_both_close_red_for_the_first_time\"><\/span>January and February could both close red for the first time<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1723\" data-end=\"1760\">This may be the most striking signal.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1762\" data-end=\"1970\">Bitcoin fell 10.2% in January. February is already down 13.4%. If price fails to reclaim $80,000 before month-end, Bitcoin will, for the first time ever, close both January and February in negative territory.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1972\" data-end=\"2086\">That seemingly small statistic is now firmly on the radar of everyone from algorithmic traders to long-term funds.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2088\" data-end=\"2302\">Ethereum isn\u2019t faring much better either. While ETH has only posted red first quarters three times historically, the current period is shaping up as its third-worst Q1 on record, with losses already reaching 34.3%.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2088\" data-end=\"2302\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-63718\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Quarterly-returns-1024x607.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"605\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Quarterly-returns-1024x607.png 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Quarterly-returns-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Quarterly-returns-768x455.png 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Quarterly-returns.png 1342w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2309\" data-end=\"2363\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CThis_isnt_a_collapse_%E2%80%94_its_a_classic_correction%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>\u201cThis isn\u2019t a collapse \u2014 it\u2019s a classic correction\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2365\" data-end=\"2554\">Speaking on behalf of <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">LVRG Research<\/span><\/span>, <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Nick Ruck<\/span><\/span> described the pullback as a \u201cclassic correction phase\u201d rather than a structural breakdown.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2556\" data-end=\"2832\">He acknowledged that global uncertainty could intensify short-term pressure, but emphasized that Bitcoin has historically shown resilience after similar periods. Continued institutional interest and the underlying halving cycle narrative still support the medium-term outlook.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2834\" data-end=\"3081\">Over the past 24 hours, BTC slipped another 2.3%, trading near $68,600 at the time of writing. Current pricing aligns with data from <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">CoinGecko<\/span><\/span>. The story was originally reported by <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Cointelegraph<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3088\" data-end=\"3144\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_market_has_paused_%E2%80%94_but_data_flow_is_accelerating\"><\/span>The market has paused \u2014 but data flow is accelerating<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3146\" data-end=\"3488\">On-chain metrics show declining spot volume, while derivatives markets are seeing open interest rise again. That combination typically points to a \u201chesitant bottom\u201d phase. Panic selling may be fading, but direction remains unresolved. The next few days \u2014 especially alongside U.S. macro releases \u2014 could shape Bitcoin\u2019s short-term trajectory.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3490\" data-end=\"3764\">Bitcoin is now down more than 22% year-to-date, has logged five consecutive losing weeks, and is edging toward its first ever dual red January\u2013February close. On the surface, the picture looks unsettling. Yet past cycles suggest Q1 turbulence doesn\u2019t always define the year.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3766\" data-end=\"3854\">For now, the market sits in a kind of waiting room \u2014 quiet, tense, and highly sensitive.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3766\" data-end=\"3854\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin started the year trading around $87,700. Within just a few weeks, it shed roughly $20,000, sliding toward the $68,000 range. On the surface, it looks like a standard correction. But once you dig into the numbers, a different story begins to emerge. The first two months of 2026 alone already represent a 22.3% drawdown<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":48175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[27930,27929,27927,11036,27928],"class_list":["post-63717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin-q1-analysis","tag-btc-why-is-it-falling","tag-crypto-performance","tag-crypto-volatility","tag-market-correction-phase"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin Down 22%: Is a 2018 Scenario Coming? - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin is down over 22% in early 2026. Could this become its worst Q1 since 2018? 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