{"id":63839,"date":"2026-02-18T09:38:02","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T06:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=63839"},"modified":"2026-02-18T09:38:02","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T06:38:02","slug":"alert-fed-fomc-minutes-drop-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/alert-fed-fomc-minutes-drop-today\/","title":{"rendered":"Alert: FED FOMC Minutes Drop Today"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"620\" data-end=\"901\">Crypto markets are searching for direction ahead of today\u2019s <strong>FOMC<\/strong> minutes. If the January meeting notes pull <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/how-many-rate-cuts-will-the-fed-deliver-in-2026\/\"><strong>rate-cut<\/strong><\/a> expectations forward, Bitcoin and altcoins could stage a relief rally. A hawkish tone, however, may revive selling pressure across digital assets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"903\" data-end=\"1146\">As of February 18, 2026, markets are fully locked on messages from the <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Federal Reserve<\/span><\/span>. The minutes will not only reflect what policymakers said \u2014 they will determine how far traders shift their interest-rate projections.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/alert-fed-fomc-minutes-drop-today\/#Crypto_crawl_boost_paragraph\" title=\"Crypto crawl boost paragraph\">Crypto crawl boost paragraph<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/alert-fed-fomc-minutes-drop-today\/#How_could_the_minutes_impact_crypto\" title=\"How could the minutes impact crypto?\">How could the minutes impact crypto?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/alert-fed-fomc-minutes-drop-today\/#Inflation_data_reshaped_expectations\" title=\"Inflation data reshaped expectations\">Inflation data reshaped expectations<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/alert-fed-fomc-minutes-drop-today\/#What_does_CME_FedWatch_show\" title=\"What does CME FedWatch show?\">What does CME FedWatch show?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/alert-fed-fomc-minutes-drop-today\/#Short-term_crypto_outlook\" title=\"Short-term crypto outlook\">Short-term crypto outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"1148\" data-end=\"1180\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Crypto_crawl_boost_paragraph\"><\/span>Crypto crawl boost paragraph<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1182\" data-end=\"1546\">Crypto markets have entered a high-volatility window ahead of today\u2019s FOMC minutes, with Bitcoin futures open interest rising and spot volumes accelerating across major exchanges. Traders are watching Fed language closely for rate-cut clues, as short-term positioning in BTC and altcoins has become increasingly sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1580\" data-end=\"1852\">With the U.S. session approaching, algorithmic trading activity is expected to accelerate. Futures volumes are already building from Asia into Europe, while desks rebalance exposure ahead of the release. Early reactions to Fed phrasing could trigger sharp intraday swings.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1859\" data-end=\"1898\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_could_the_minutes_impact_crypto\"><\/span>How could the minutes impact crypto?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1900\" data-end=\"1984\">The critical factor isn\u2019t just the wording \u2014 it\u2019s how much market expectations move.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1986\" data-end=\"2178\">If policymakers appear more comfortable with rate cuts or express concern about slowing growth, summer easing bets could strengthen. That scenario would likely support Bitcoin and risk assets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2180\" data-end=\"2372\">But if the minutes emphasize patience and upside inflation risks, rate cuts may be pushed further out. This would likely pressure Bitcoin prices and weigh more heavily on higher-beta altcoins.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2374\" data-end=\"2583\">In a post on X, analyst MANI outlined two scenarios: a hawkish tone suggesting rates stay higher for longer could spark selling across crypto, while dovish signals pointing toward cuts may help prices recover.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2845\">From the previous meeting, Fed Chair <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Jerome Powell<\/span><\/span> said there was \u201cno rush to cut rates.\u201d MANI warned the release could increase volatility and urged traders to manage risk carefully. The next official rate decision arrives on March 18.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2845\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-63840\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-faiz-1024x481.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1020\" height=\"479\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-faiz-1024x481.png 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-faiz-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-faiz-768x361.png 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/fed-faiz.png 1482w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1020px) 100vw, 1020px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2852\" data-end=\"2891\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Inflation_data_reshaped_expectations\"><\/span>Inflation data reshaped expectations<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2893\" data-end=\"3078\">January U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.5% forecast. It marked the lowest reading in more than four years and suggested inflation is moving closer to the Fed\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3080\" data-end=\"3424\">Markets are now pricing roughly 2.5% of cumulative rate cuts through 2026 \u2014 the largest total since the Fed last met in December. Analyst Liz Thomas said this forward-looking view remains intact despite stronger employment data and still-elevated supercore inflation. She added that if growth stays firm, current expectations may be too dovish.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3426\" data-end=\"3678\">The federal funds rate remains between 3.5% and 3.75%. After multiple cuts late in 2025, the central bank paused its easing cycle. The January FOMC minutes should provide detail on that internal debate and how officials view growth and inflation risks.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3685\" data-end=\"3716\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_does_CME_FedWatch_show\"><\/span>What does CME FedWatch show?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3718\" data-end=\"3963\">Market pricing shifted sharply after the latest labor report. Ahead of January payrolls, traders assigned about a 40% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in March. But after nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000, odds of a rate hold jumped above 92%.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3965\" data-end=\"4135\">According to <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">CME FedWatch<\/span><\/span>, expectations now strongly favor unchanged rates in March. That repricing has reinforced caution across crypto markets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4137\" data-end=\"4264\">Fortune cited Schwartz as saying the employment data \u201cflipped the no hiring\/no firing narrative\u201d many Fed watchers had adopted.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"4271\" data-end=\"4299\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Short-term_crypto_outlook\"><\/span>Short-term crypto outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4301\" data-end=\"4526\">Today\u2019s FOMC minutes could define near-term direction for Bitcoin and altcoins. If rate-cut expectations move forward, crypto may see a relief bounce. If Fed messaging turns hawkish, renewed pressure on risk assets is likely.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4528\" data-end=\"4714\">In short, crypto is sitting in a data-driven transition zone. The tone of the minutes won\u2019t just shape today\u2019s price action \u2014 it could reset perceptions around the entire 2026 rate path.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4528\" data-end=\"4714\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for\u00a0<\/em><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crypto markets are searching for direction ahead of today\u2019s FOMC minutes. If the January meeting notes pull rate-cut expectations forward, Bitcoin and altcoins could stage a relief rally. A hawkish tone, however, may revive selling pressure across digital assets. As of February 18, 2026, markets are fully locked on messages from the Federal Reserve. The<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":37930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2],"tags":[27977,847,27976,27975,11415],"class_list":["post-63839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","category-news","tag-cme-fedwatch-data","tag-crypto-news","tag-fed-rate-expectations-2026","tag-fomc-minutes-today","tag-why-is-bitcoin-falling"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Alert: FED FOMC Minutes Drop Today - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"FED FOMC minutes drop today. 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