{"id":63916,"date":"2026-02-19T14:00:51","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T11:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=63916"},"modified":"2026-02-19T10:34:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T07:34:29","slug":"hayes-outlines-two-scenarios-for-bitcoin-rally-or-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/hayes-outlines-two-scenarios-for-bitcoin-rally-or-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Hayes Outlines Two Scenarios for Bitcoin: Rally or Crash?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"51\" data-end=\"436\"><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/hayes-issues-a-fiat-fire-alarm-warning-bitcoin-vs-tech-stocks\/\"><strong>Arthur Hayes<\/strong><\/a>, a well-known figure in the crypto industry and co-founder of BitMEX, has once again outlined a bullish case for <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong>. According to Hayes, a potential $572 billion wave of liquidity originating from Washington could lay the groundwork for a renewed surge in risk assets. His thesis centers on developments within US Treasury cash management and bond buyback operations.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/hayes-outlines-two-scenarios-for-bitcoin-rally-or-crash\/#Where_Could_the_Liquidity_Come_From\" title=\"Where Could the Liquidity Come From?\">Where Could the Liquidity Come From?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/hayes-outlines-two-scenarios-for-bitcoin-rally-or-crash\/#A_Form_of_%E2%80%9CStealth_Stimulus%E2%80%9D\" title=\"A Form of \u201cStealth Stimulus\u201d?\">A Form of \u201cStealth Stimulus\u201d?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/hayes-outlines-two-scenarios-for-bitcoin-rally-or-crash\/#What_Does_This_Mean_for_Bitcoin\" title=\"What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?\">What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"438\" data-end=\"478\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Where_Could_the_Liquidity_Come_From\"><\/span>Where Could the Liquidity Come From?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"480\" data-end=\"839\">At the heart of Hayes\u2019 argument is the US Treasury General Account (TGA), essentially the government\u2019s primary cash account held at the Federal Reserve. When balances in the TGA are elevated, funds remain parked and largely outside the broader financial system. As the balance declines through government spending, liquidity flows back into banks and markets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"841\" data-end=\"1077\">Currently, the TGA balance stands near $750 billion, while the Treasury\u2019s guidance suggests a target closer to $450 billion. That gap implies roughly $301 billion could be released into the financial system as the balance is drawn down.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1079\" data-end=\"1398\">In addition, the Treasury has initiated bond buybacks aimed at improving market functioning by repurchasing older debt. Hayes estimates that, at the current pace, these buybacks could inject another $271 billion annually. Combined, these two channels represent a potential liquidity boost of approximately $572 billion.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1079\" data-end=\"1398\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-196817 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bitcoin-hayes.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1400\" data-end=\"1433\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_Form_of_%E2%80%9CStealth_Stimulus%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>A Form of \u201cStealth Stimulus\u201d?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1435\" data-end=\"1788\">Although this process is not formally labeled as monetary easing, Hayes argues that its practical effect may resemble stimulus. While the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy stance in its messaging, Treasury operations are simultaneously increasing cash circulation. In liquidity-driven markets, capital flows often carry more weight than rhetoric.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1790\" data-end=\"1898\">Historically, periods of expanding liquidity have tended to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1900\" data-end=\"1936\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Does_This_Mean_for_Bitcoin\"><\/span>What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1938\" data-end=\"2206\">Hayes believes the most difficult phase for crypto may already be over. He points out that Bitcoin has historically shown a strong relationship with global liquidity conditions. When US dollar supply expands, scarce assets such as BTC often experience upward pressure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2208\" data-end=\"2541\">He also notes that extreme funding rates suggest crowded short positioning in the market. If fresh liquidity enters the system while traders are heavily positioned to the downside, a sharp short squeeze could follow. In that scenario, Hayes sees room for Bitcoin to revisit all-time highs and potentially approach the $100,000 level.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2208\" data-end=\"2541\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Hayes, a well-known figure in the crypto industry and co-founder of BitMEX, has once again outlined a bullish case for Bitcoin. According to Hayes, a potential $572 billion wave of liquidity originating from Washington could lay the groundwork for a renewed surge in risk assets. His thesis centers on developments within US Treasury cash<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":58997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[2545,61,2624,60,11802,7135,28007,11017],"class_list":["post-63916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitmex","tag-btc","tag-crash","tag-rally","tag-tga","tag-us-treasury"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Hayes Outlines Two Scenarios for Bitcoin: Rally or Crash? - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes, a well-known figure in the crypto industry and co-founder of BitMEX, has once again outlined a bullish case for Bitcoin.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/hayes-outlines-two-scenarios-for-bitcoin-rally-or-crash\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hayes Outlines Two Scenarios for Bitcoin: Rally or Crash? 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