{"id":64017,"date":"2026-02-20T15:00:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T12:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=64017"},"modified":"2026-02-20T11:19:46","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T08:19:46","slug":"jpmorgan-and-bofa-issue-critical-pce-inflation-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-and-bofa-issue-critical-pce-inflation-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan and BofA Issue Critical PCE Inflation Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"218\" data-end=\"519\">Ahead of the upcoming US <strong>PCE inflation<\/strong> report, Wall Street\u2019s largest banks have raised their expectations. JPMorgan and Bank of America, among others, project that core PCE will rise about 0.37% monthly, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%. This level could directly affect the <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-keeps-inflation-first-when-will-rate-cuts-begin\/\"><strong>Fed<\/strong><\/a>\u2019s timing for rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"521\" data-end=\"732\">Markets are already pricing in some of this. The dollar index is approaching 98, while Bitcoin and stocks have limited room to move. Major investors appear to be waiting for the data before taking new positions.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-and-bofa-issue-critical-pce-inflation-forecast\/#Wall_Street_Banks_Expect_Limited_but_Crucial_Inflation_Increase\" title=\"Wall Street Banks Expect Limited but Crucial Inflation Increase\">Wall Street Banks Expect Limited but Crucial Inflation Increase<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-and-bofa-issue-critical-pce-inflation-forecast\/#Rate_Cut_Expectations_Are_Moving_Further_Out\" title=\"Rate Cut Expectations Are Moving Further Out\">Rate Cut Expectations Are Moving Further Out<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-and-bofa-issue-critical-pce-inflation-forecast\/#Bitcoin_and_Global_Markets_Trade_in_a_Narrow_Range\" title=\"Bitcoin and Global Markets Trade in a Narrow Range\">Bitcoin and Global Markets Trade in a Narrow Range<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-and-bofa-issue-critical-pce-inflation-forecast\/#The_Big_Question_Is_Inflation_Rising_Again\" title=\"The Big Question: Is Inflation Rising Again?\">The Big Question: Is Inflation Rising Again?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jpmorgan-and-bofa-issue-critical-pce-inflation-forecast\/#Micro_Data_Block\" title=\"Micro Data Block\">Micro Data Block<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"734\" data-end=\"800\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Wall_Street_Banks_Expect_Limited_but_Crucial_Inflation_Increase\"><\/span>Wall Street Banks Expect Limited but Crucial Inflation Increase<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"802\" data-end=\"993\">JPMorgan forecasts a 0.37% monthly rise in both headline and core PCE. While this seems modest, it translates into a notable annual effect, lifting core PCE to 2.9%. November\u2019s rate was 2.8%.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"995\" data-end=\"1259\">Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays expect core inflation to rise 0.39\u20130.40% monthly, with an annual rate around 3%. Goldman Sachs, Citi, and UBS forecast smaller increases, but the overall picture is the same: the downward trend in inflation is slowing.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1261\" data-end=\"1348\">This is critical because core PCE is a primary reference for the Fed\u2019s monetary policy.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1350\" data-end=\"1397\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Rate_Cut_Expectations_Are_Moving_Further_Out\"><\/span>Rate Cut Expectations Are Moving Further Out<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1399\" data-end=\"1584\">If inflation rises as expected, the Fed may remain cautious about rate cuts. Recent strong employment data and resilient economic activity already reduce the likelihood of an early cut.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1586\" data-end=\"1794\">Futures indicate about a 48% chance of a June rate cut, while most Wall Street institutions see the first cut more likely in July. This adjustment is gradually recalibrating short-term liquidity expectations.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1796\" data-end=\"1849\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_and_Global_Markets_Trade_in_a_Narrow_Range\"><\/span>Bitcoin and Global Markets Trade in a Narrow Range<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1851\" data-end=\"2031\">Crypto markets are similarly cautious. Bitcoin traded between $65,637 and $67,456 in the last 24 hours. Price hovering around $67,000 reflects investor caution ahead of macro data.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2033\" data-end=\"2179\">Trading volume is low, and options expiration is approaching, keeping volatility subdued. After the data, market direction is expected to clarify.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2181\" data-end=\"2329\">The stronger dollar and delayed rate cut expectations are key factors applying short-term pressure on risk assets, but the outlook is not one-sided.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2331\" data-end=\"2378\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Big_Question_Is_Inflation_Rising_Again\"><\/span>The Big Question: Is Inflation Rising Again?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2380\" data-end=\"2531\">The PCE report will provide the first clear answer. If core inflation reaches 2.9%, the Fed may postpone cuts further, delaying liquidity expectations.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2533\" data-end=\"2694\">Market reaction often reflects uncertainty more than the direction itself. Once clarity arrives, even a neutral or slightly negative outcome could ease tensions.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2701\" data-end=\"2721\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Micro_Data_Block\"><\/span>Micro Data Block<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2723\" data-end=\"2933\">\n<li data-start=\"2723\" data-end=\"2770\">\n<p data-start=\"2725\" data-end=\"2770\">JPMorgan core PCE forecast: 0.37% (monthly)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2771\" data-end=\"2823\">\n<p data-start=\"2773\" data-end=\"2823\">Wall Street forecast range: 0.37\u20130.40% (monthly)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2824\" data-end=\"2862\">\n<p data-start=\"2826\" data-end=\"2862\">Expected annual core PCE: 2.9\u20133.0%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2863\" data-end=\"2907\">\n<p data-start=\"2865\" data-end=\"2907\">Bitcoin 24-hour range: $65,637 \u2013 $67,456<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2908\" data-end=\"2933\">\n<p data-start=\"2910\" data-end=\"2933\">Dollar index: near 98<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The US PCE inflation report will shape both the macro outlook and the Fed\u2019s policy path. With major Wall Street banks revising forecasts upward, the slowdown in inflation is showing signs of stalling. Market volatility for Bitcoin, equities, and the dollar may rise immediately after the release. Rate cut timing remains the main driver of risk appetite.<\/p>\n<p><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ahead of the upcoming US PCE inflation report, Wall Street\u2019s largest banks have raised their expectations. JPMorgan and Bank of America, among others, project that core PCE will rise about 0.37% monthly, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%. This level could directly affect the Fed\u2019s timing for rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in some<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":44078,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[657,2],"tags":[552,28055,21496,7578,28056,28054,13533,5366,1814],"class_list":["post-64017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-en","category-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bofa-forecast","tag-core-pce","tag-fed-rate","tag-headline-inflation","tag-jpmorgan-forecast","tag-pce-inflation","tag-us-inflation","tag-wall-street"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>JPMorgan and BofA Issue Critical PCE Inflation Forecast - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"JPMorgan and BofA expect a rise in US PCE inflation. 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