{"id":64725,"date":"2026-03-03T11:30:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T08:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=64725"},"modified":"2026-03-03T10:12:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T07:12:53","slug":"bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Approaches Bottom with 4-Year Cycle!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"1049\" data-end=\"1618\">In recent months, thousands of complex analyses have tried to make sense of <strong>Bitcoin price<\/strong> movements. Yet according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, the answer is much simpler. Why is Bitcoin rising? The fundamental reason lies in the 21 million capped supply and the famous <strong>4-year halving<\/strong> cycle that reduces miners\u2019 rewards by half. As of March 2026, with BTC approaching $68,400, Van Eck told CNBC, \u201cBitcoin rises for three years, falls in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year, and we have now touched the bottom of the bear market,\u201d dispersing fear across the market.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle\/#Post-Cycle_Bottom_VanEcks_Perspective\" title=\"Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck\u2019s Perspective\">Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck\u2019s Perspective<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle\/#Geopolitical_Tension_and_Market_Reaction\" title=\"Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction\">Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle\/#Futures_Open_Interest_and_Institutional_Activity\" title=\"Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity\">Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle\/#Institutional_Adoption_Continues\" title=\"Institutional Adoption Continues\">Institutional Adoption Continues<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle\/#Bottom_and_Market_Resilience\" title=\"Bottom and Market Resilience\">Bottom and Market Resilience<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"1625\" data-end=\"1674\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Post-Cycle_Bottom_VanEcks_Perspective\"><\/span>Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck\u2019s Perspective<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1676\" data-end=\"1876\">Van Eck told CNBC that Bitcoin prices could gradually recover in 2026. He noted that in recent months, the main driver of BTC\u2019s price was not the coin\u2019s fundamentals but the four-year halving cycle.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1878\" data-end=\"2064\">\u201cBitcoin rose for three consecutive years and saw a major drop in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year. I think we are close to the bottom. No need to overcomplicate it,\u201d said Van Eck.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2066\" data-end=\"2250\">Analysts remain divided: some point to institutional ETF demand, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory developments, while cycle proponents maintain the classic model is still valid.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2257\" data-end=\"2307\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Geopolitical_Tension_and_Market_Reaction\"><\/span>Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2309\" data-end=\"2693\">The recent recovery coincided with rising geopolitical risks as the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. According to Van Eck, during such uncertain periods, crypto payment systems become critical tools for transferring funds outside the traditional banking system. The attacks undermined trust in local banks, leading funds to flow via crypto networks in Dubai and the UAE.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2695\" data-end=\"2883\">\u201cIn a potential <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/war-update-critical-moments-on-the-us-israel-iran-fronts\/\">Iran<\/a> settlement, how will money be transferred? Regions like the UAE and Dubai are crypto-friendly. Using crypto instead of Iranian banks makes sense,\u201d Van Eck explained.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2890\" data-end=\"2950\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Futures_Open_Interest_and_Institutional_Activity\"><\/span>Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2952\" data-end=\"3094\">Demand for Bitcoin futures has dropped to its lowest since 2024. CME open interest shows that major institutions have not exited the market.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"3096\" data-end=\"3157\">After testing $63,000 on Saturday, BTC rose 10% to $70,000.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3159\" data-end=\"3236\">Total futures open interest fell to $32 billion, down 20% from a month ago.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3238\" data-end=\"3336\">Leverage demand has significantly decreased since the all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3338\" data-end=\"3471\">Options premiums are around 0.7, with put demand lower than call demand, indicating stable conditions aside from short-term stress.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"3478\" data-end=\"3520\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Institutional_Adoption_Continues\"><\/span>Institutional Adoption Continues<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3522\" data-end=\"3876\">Despite seemingly intimidating derivatives data, the other side is encouraging. While Bitcoin\u2019s performance against gold and equities is low, spot BTC ETFs see average daily volumes exceeding $3 billion. Public companies such as Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US) hold over $79 billion in BTC on-chain.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3878\" data-end=\"4069\">Countries including Bhutan, El Salvador, and the UAE continue investing in Bitcoin, demonstrating that institutional adoption is far from zero and market confidence has not entirely eroded.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"4076\" data-end=\"4114\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bottom_and_Market_Resilience\"><\/span>Bottom and Market Resilience<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4116\" data-end=\"4411\">Although the absolute bottom of the current cycle is unclear, Bitcoin\u2019s fixed supply and the $1.4 trillion crypto market demonstrate resilience. Despite selling pressure and geopolitical chaos, the ecosystem remains standing. Whether $60,000 marks the ultimate bottom will be revealed over time.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4116\" data-end=\"4411\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In recent months, thousands of complex analyses have tried to make sense of Bitcoin price movements. Yet according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, the answer is much simpler. Why is Bitcoin rising? The fundamental reason lies in the 21 million capped supply and the famous 4-year halving cycle that reduces miners\u2019 rewards by half.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":42805,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[28343,108,19987,28344,11340,4946,2233,28342,1145],"class_list":["post-64725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-4-year-halving","tag-bear-market","tag-btc-price-action","tag-cme-open-interest","tag-crypto-cycle","tag-dubai-crypto","tag-el-salvador-bitcoin","tag-jan-van-eck","tag-vaneck"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin Approaches Bottom with 4-Year Cycle! - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"VanEck CEO Jan van Eck points to the 4-year halving cycle and says Bitcoin has touched the bear market bottom as of , with BTC around $68,400.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-approaches-bottom-with-4-year-cycle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin Approaches Bottom with 4-Year Cycle! 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