{"id":65403,"date":"2026-03-13T13:00:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T10:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=65403"},"modified":"2026-03-13T09:38:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T06:38:01","slug":"analyst-new-aths-difficult-until-this-bitcoin-risk-is-resolved","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analyst-new-aths-difficult-until-this-bitcoin-risk-is-resolved\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: &#8220;New ATHs Difficult Until This Bitcoin Risk is Resolved&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"94\" data-end=\"529\">Charles Edwards, founder of <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-developer-quantum-isnt-the-reason-for-the-drop\/\"><strong>Capriole Investments<\/strong><\/a>, recently shared his outlook on <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> (BTC)\u2019s current market structure, potential developments heading into 2026, and several risks investors should closely monitor. According to Edwards, Bitcoin appears to be trading within what historical metrics suggest is a \u201cvalue zone.\u201d However, he emphasized that being in such a range does not necessarily imply that a rapid price surge is imminent.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"531\" data-end=\"889\">Edwards also pointed out a common mistake among investors: the constant attempt to perfectly identify the market bottom. In his view, Bitcoin\u2019s present price structure indicates that the asset is positioned closer to long-term support areas than to previous market peaks, suggesting that valuations may already reflect a significant portion of downside risk.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analyst-new-aths-difficult-until-this-bitcoin-risk-is-resolved\/#A_Key_Valuation_Range_for_Bitcoin\" title=\"A Key Valuation Range for Bitcoin\">A Key Valuation Range for Bitcoin<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analyst-new-aths-difficult-until-this-bitcoin-risk-is-resolved\/#Quantum_Computing_Concerns\" title=\"Quantum Computing Concerns\">Quantum Computing Concerns<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analyst-new-aths-difficult-until-this-bitcoin-risk-is-resolved\/#The_Role_of_Macro_Liquidity\" title=\"The Role of Macro Liquidity\">The Role of Macro Liquidity<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analyst-new-aths-difficult-until-this-bitcoin-risk-is-resolved\/#The_Debate_Around_Bitcoin_Treasury_Companies\" title=\"The Debate Around Bitcoin Treasury Companies\">The Debate Around Bitcoin Treasury Companies<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"r5x0wg\" data-start=\"891\" data-end=\"927\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_Key_Valuation_Range_for_Bitcoin\"><\/span>A Key Valuation Range for Bitcoin<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"929\" data-end=\"1133\">One of the analytical frameworks Edwards highlighted involves Bitcoin\u2019s production cost model. This model evaluates the cost of mining Bitcoin and uses it as a benchmark for understanding long-term value.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1135\" data-end=\"1404\">Based on this approach, Edwards noted that the $50,000 to $60,000 range represents a meaningful value zone for Bitcoin. Historically, mining costs have often aligned with key support levels in the market, making them a useful indicator when evaluating price floors.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1406\" data-end=\"1598\">While these levels do not guarantee immediate upside, they may indicate that Bitcoin is trading within a historically attractive valuation band relative to its underlying production economics.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1406\" data-end=\"1598\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-183283 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/kuantum.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1280\" height=\"719\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1ey30nt\" data-start=\"1600\" data-end=\"1629\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Quantum_Computing_Concerns\"><\/span>Quantum Computing Concerns<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1631\" data-end=\"1906\">A particularly notable part of Edwards\u2019 discussion focused on the potential implications of quantum computing for Bitcoin\u2019s long-term security model. He argued that the topic has not yet received the level of attention it may deserve within the Bitcoin development community.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1908\" data-end=\"2226\">According to Edwards, some institutional investors have already expressed caution regarding this technological uncertainty. The possibility that future quantum computing breakthroughs could challenge existing cryptographic standards has led certain market participants to limit or reconsider their Bitcoin allocations.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2228\" data-end=\"2426\">He suggested that until the ecosystem begins implementing clear quantum-resistant solutions, the uncertainty could act as a psychological barrier preventing Bitcoin from reaching new all-time highs.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"we1wor\" data-start=\"2428\" data-end=\"2458\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Role_of_Macro_Liquidity\"><\/span>The Role of Macro Liquidity<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2460\" data-end=\"2713\">Edwards also emphasized that macroeconomic conditions remain a major driver of cryptocurrency markets. In particular, potential interest rate cuts in the United States and expansionary fiscal policies could provide supportive conditions for risk assets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2715\" data-end=\"2838\">Such an environment could improve liquidity across financial markets, which historically has benefited assets like Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2840\" data-end=\"3089\">However, Edwards cautioned that rising energy prices could complicate this outlook. If oil prices were to climb above $100 per barrel, it could introduce additional pressure on global equity markets and potentially affect broader risk sentiment.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"nezeza\" data-start=\"3091\" data-end=\"3138\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Debate_Around_Bitcoin_Treasury_Companies\"><\/span>The Debate Around Bitcoin Treasury Companies<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3140\" data-end=\"3417\">Another topic raised during the discussion involved the growing number of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Edwards believes that the increasing presence of these so-called \u201cBitcoin treasury companies\u201d may not be sustainable over the long term.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3419\" data-end=\"3745\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">He suggested that many of these firms could eventually consolidate or disappear as market dynamics evolve. Companies that have adopted debt-financed Bitcoin accumulation strategies may also need to adapt their business models in the future, potentially expanding into financial services or lending activities to remain viable.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3419\" data-end=\"3745\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube\u00a0<\/a>and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, recently shared his outlook on Bitcoin (BTC)\u2019s current market structure, potential developments heading into 2026, and several risks investors should closely monitor. According to Edwards, Bitcoin appears to be trading within what historical metrics suggest is a \u201cvalue zone.\u201d However, he emphasized that being in such a range does<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":38509,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,477,60,10037,9756],"class_list":["post-65403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-btc","tag-capriole-investments","tag-quantum"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Analyst: &quot;New ATHs Difficult Until This Bitcoin Risk is Resolved&quot; - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analyst, during his appearance on the broadcast, provided assessments on the market state of Bitcoin, 2026 expectations, and the risks.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/analyst-new-aths-difficult-until-this-bitcoin-risk-is-resolved\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analyst: &quot;New ATHs Difficult Until This Bitcoin Risk is Resolved&quot; - 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