Yeliz Akmaca 
Dogecoin is experiencing a notable week in the crypto market. Between May 12-19, 96.52 million DOGE, equivalent to approximately $22.75 million, will be released into the market. This amount represents only 0.06% of the total supply. However, alongside significant token unlocks for APT, ARB, SOL, and WLD, a total wave of $774 million is expected. This could create selling pressure in the market. Dogecoin is displaying strong performance in technical indicators. However, token unlocks may impact price movements.
Dogecoin Technical Analysis
The price has surpassed the psychological resistance of $0.20. It has also moved above the 100 and 200-day moving averages. The price reached $0.25 but faced resistance. The RSI is at 73, in the overbought zone, increasing the risk of a pullback. On the other hand, the 200 EMA support level at $0.21 is critical. If this level holds, token could target $0.30. However, if token unlocks create selling pressure, the price could retreat to $0.20 or $0.19. Open interest (OI) has risen by 8%, reaching $2.17 billion, indicating growing investor interest.
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A recent increase in Dogecoin’s Age Consumed metric points to heightened selling activity by long-term holders (LTH). This metric spikes when old coins are transferred or sold, suggesting LTHs are realizing profits or adjusting their portfolios. Notably, after coin’s 36% price surge ($0.17 to $0.23) in late 2024 and early 2025, data indicates LTHs have been selling. Looking at long-term expectations, Benzinga’s report suggests that DOGE could reach the $0.731 level by the end of 2025. This would represent a return of over 300% compared to its current price. However, the realization of such predictions depends on overall market conditions and sustained investor interest.
Token Unlocks and Market Dynamics
Token unlocks can trigger volatility in the crypto market. Dogecoin’s unlock amount is relatively small. Still, during periods of market saturation or uncertainty, it could shift sentiment. If demand remains strong, DOGE may sustain its current momentum. At the time of writing, it is trading at $0.24907.
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