Emre Yumlu 
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to end 2025 above its current price level. However, the tariff announcement made by former U.S. President Donald Trump back in February led her to revise her year-end forecast downward.
“If it weren’t for the tariff situation, my price target would have been much higher,” Alden said. Still, she believes Bitcoin will close the year at a higher level than today.
Liquidity Could Be the Key Catalyst for Bitcoin
According to Alden, a strong liquidity boost in financial markets is essential for Bitcoin to reach more optimistic price targets. This scenario might be triggered by a major disruption in the U.S. bond market, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement yield curve control or initiate another round of quantitative easing (QE).
She also noted that crypto markets are more prone to volatility due to their 24/7 trading structure, unlike traditional financial markets with limited hours. “If uncertainty builds over the weekend, some investors choose to sell their Bitcoin on Sunday to prepare for Monday,” Alden explained.
Bitcoin May Decouple from Nasdaq
Alden emphasized that Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily have to move in sync with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. In her view, events that damage Nasdaq’s profit margins but do not impact global liquidity could allow Bitcoin to chart its own course.
To illustrate, she pointed to the global market environment between 2003 and 2007, when the U.S. dollar remained weak and capital flowed into emerging markets, commodities, and gold. Alden believes a similar market cycle could once again favor Bitcoin even if U.S. equities underperform.
Strong Correlation Between Bitcoin and Global Liquidity
In a previous research report, Alden noted that Bitcoin moved in the same direction as global M2 money supply 83% of the time over any given 12-month period. The study labeled Bitcoin as the “strongest barometer of global liquidity”, outperforming assets like the S&P 500 (SPX), gold, and global equity indices (VT) in terms of correlation with liquidity.
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