Yeliz Akmaca 
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal stated that, based on global economic data, the current crypto cycle may extend into the second quarter of 2026. In a recent video, Pal noted striking similarities between the current market structure and that of 2017. Throughout that year, Bitcoin gradually increased in value before experiencing a sharp jump in December.
Falling Dollar Index Boosts Bitcoin
Bitcoin entered 2017 at $1,044 and surged to $14,156 by the end of the year, gaining approximately 1,255%. A similar scenario could be unfolding today. According to Pal, macroeconomic indicators lie at the core of this similarity. In particular, the weakening of the US dollar stands out. Since the beginning of 2025, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped 8.99%, falling to 98.77. As the dollar and Bitcoin are inversely correlated, a weaker dollar makes BTC more appealing.
Another key indicator is Pal’s “business cycle score,” which reflects the current phase of the global economic cycle. The score is now below 50, indicating the cycle is still in an early stage. Pal explained that this is due to delayed interest rate adjustments. As the dollar remained flat for a long time, the crypto cycle was also postponed.
Pal also referenced the year 2020, when Bitcoin began at $7,174, dipped to $5,227 in March, but ended the year at $28,993, marking a 304% increase. Today’s market dynamics may also support a similar upward trend.
Middle East Preparing for a Blockchain-Based Future
Pal added that for the crypto market to continue growing, it must attract institutional investors. During his visit to the Middle East, he observed a rising interest in crypto among sovereign wealth funds. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar are focusing not only on Bitcoin as a reserve asset but also on building government infrastructure using blockchain technology.
Another factor shaping the direction of crypto markets will be the level of involvement from major players. Macroeconomic data and technological transformation are among the key drivers of this growing interest.
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