Yeliz Akmaca 
On the first trading day of 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum options totaling over $2.2 billion are set to expire. Both cryptocurrencies are trading near critical price levels, prompting investors to closely monitor potential volatility and early trend signals. This period is considered crucial as it may test the market’s bullish momentum and shape risk perception for the first quarter.
Bullish Trend and Institutional Positions in Bitcoin
Bitcoin options dominate the market with a total value of approximately $1.87 billion. Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,972, just above the max pain level of $88,000. Open interest shows 14,194 call contracts versus 6,806 put contracts, totaling 21,001 contracts and a put-call ratio of 0.48.
Institutional activity in block trades accounts for 36.4% of call contracts and 24.9% of puts. This indicates that the market is positioned more for upward expectations rather than short-term hedging. Option volume is particularly concentrated in the March and June 2026 maturities.
Cautious Optimism in Ethereum
Ethereum options have a total notional value of approximately $395.7 million. ETH is trading around $3,023, slightly above the max pain level of $2,950. Open interest includes 80,957 calls versus 49,998 puts, totaling 130,955 contracts with a put-call ratio of 0.62.
In addition, call contracts account for 73.7% of Ethereum block trade volume. This suggests that investors are taking strategic, longer-term positions rather than short-term speculative bets. Options remain active across quarterly maturities throughout the year, signaling an expectation of broader upward movement.
Expiry Risks and Volatility Outlook
Option expiries typically trigger market fluctuations. As contracts close, investors must either exercise positions or let them lapse, which often aligns prices near max pain levels and reduces payout obligations for option sellers.
High concentration of expiring contracts can weaken price stability. If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices stray from key levels, volatility may rise. Bullish momentum appears strong. However, as investors roll positions and reassess risk, short-term pressure may occur. Bitcoin’s high call contracts and Ethereum’s heavy block trade calls suggest that upward movement could gain speed.
In the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter for the latest news and updates.