Yeliz Akmaca 
Crypto markets are heading into one of the most consequential derivatives sessions of the week, with attention shifting away from headline price moves and toward what positioning reveals about conviction. On January 16, roughly $3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire. The timing is far from incidental. This expiry coincides with Bitcoin’s attempt to hold above a price zone it failed to reclaim for months.
Prices have moved higher in recent days. Still, options data suggests that confidence behind the move remains contested rather than settled.
Bitcoin dominates the expiry landscape, with approximately $2.4 billion in notional value rolling off, while Ethereum accounts for about $437 million. That imbalance alone signals where the market currently perceives systemic risk to be concentrated.
Bitcoin is trading near $95,300, well above its $92,000 max pain level. In options markets, max pain represents the price where the greatest number of contracts expire worthless and often acts as a magnetic level into expiry. Trading meaningfully above it implies that volatility risk has not been neutralized yet.
Bitcoin Price Breaks Higher, Options Stay Defensive
Despite the upside break, Bitcoin options positioning remains cautious. Open interest shows 11,170 call contracts versus 14,050 put contracts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 1.26. Rather than reflecting aggressive bullish leverage, this skew points to continued demand for downside protection even after the breakout.
The setup suggests the market is still testing whether the recent move deserves follow-through. A series of daily closes above $94,304 could solidify that area as support and reopen the psychological $100,000 level as a near-term reference. Failure to hold, however, risks pulling price back into the multi-month consolidation range. Options markets appear to be pricing precisely that tension.
Ethereum Remains Trapped in Indecision
Ethereum tells a quieter story. ETH is trading around $3,295, hovering just above its $3,200 max pain level. Options positioning is nearly balanced, with 65,527 calls against 67,207 puts, producing a 1.03 put-to-call ratio. The lack of skew reflects a market that is hedged but undecided.
That equilibrium mirrors Ethereum’s ongoing struggle to break decisively above the $3,400 resistance zone. Protection is in place, but conviction is notably absent.
The divergence becomes clearer in institutional-sized derivatives flows. According to Greeks.live, Bitcoin block trades recently reached $1.7 billion, accounting for more than 40% of daily volume. Ethereum block trades, by contrast, totaled just $130 million, representing roughly 20% of ETH’s volume.
The gap highlights where large players are currently focusing their attention, regardless of short-term percentage gains.
Has the Derivatives Market Turned Structurally Bullish?
Even so, the broader derivatives backdrop remains inconclusive. Greeks.live notes that futures volume failed to expand meaningfully alongside the price surge, while implied volatility across major expiries did not rebound in a convincing way. This points to a rally driven more by reactive positioning than by a clear structural shift toward a bull phase.
As today’s large options expiry clears, a short-term pull toward max pain levels would not be unusual. Typically, markets seek a new equilibrium shortly after such events, with direction becoming clearer in the sessions that follow.
Whether that adjustment fuels continuation or exposes the limits of the breakout remains unresolved—and that uncertainty is precisely what the options market continues to reflect.