Yeliz Akmaca 
Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum options worth over $5.4 billion on Deribit reach expiration. Despite end-of-cycle warnings, traders are doubling short-term volatility bets. Bitcoin trades around $102,159, with the maximum pain point at $107,000, while Ethereum holds at $3,347 defending the $3,800 resistance.
This expiry is crucial, highlighting market fragility and potential end-of-cycle signals. Analysts urge caution around BTC $100,000 and ETH $3,500–$3,800 levels.
Bitcoin Options Show Cautious Optimism
Bitcoin options display cautious optimism after recent declines below $100,000. Deribit data shows a maximum pain point at $107,000 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.79.
Open interest is concentrated around $100,000 puts and $120,000–$125,000 calls. Total open contracts are 45,802 with a nominal value exceeding $4.6 billion. This concentration indicates that traders are expecting a decisive market move and actively hedging as expiry approaches.
Ethereum’s Defensive Position Remains Key
Ethereum options trade at $3,347, maintaining a defensive stance. Open interest focuses on $3,500 puts and $4,200 calls, with a put/call ratio of approximately 0.9 and a nominal value of $716.85 million.
Traders employ calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, and straddles to maintain upside exposure while hedging against downside risk. Movements near critical levels may test the effectiveness of short-term volatility strategies.
End-of-Cycle Risks and Market Fragility
Analysts at Greeks.live warn of end-of-cycle risks. BTC levels of $105,000, $102,000, and $97,000, along with ETH at $3,650 and $3,400, drive debate about potential drops or continued volatility.
Nevertheless, many traders continue to sell options aggressively, betting on short-term volatility. Even small price moves can significantly impact settlement results. Macroeconomic factors, including CPI data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, have slowed ETF inflows, yet overall open interest remains high.
As the $5.4 billion options expire, the next few hours will test whether traders’ short-term strategies pay off or if market fragility leads to sharp moves.
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