Recep Gülcemal 
The interest rate decision to be announced by the US Federal Reserve (FED) on June 18, 2025 is causing a great expectation by the markets. Especially on the basis of the fluctuations that will be experienced in the cryptocurrency sector and the scenarios that may be experienced in the coming days, the FED needs to loosen its monetary policies. While the first half of 2025 is behind us, the FED did not realize the expected interest rate cuts this year.
What Does the FED’s Interest Rate Decision in June Mean?
Undoubtedly, the US has always taken the lead in shaping world markets. Both the moves made by the FED and the US, a global power, have a direct impact on world markets. Especially in the cryptocurrency sector, the statements and interest rate decisions to be made by the FED directly affect the market. The big rise expected in the cryptocurrency sector in 2025 did not materialize as desired as the FED has not yet taken the expected action in monetary easing. Monetary easing and interest rate cuts are expected by the FED for the cryptocurrency sector. The FED’s interest rate cuts push investors into riskier markets. For this reason, the interest rate decision to be made by the FED on June 18, 2025 is of great importance.
Will the FED Cut Interest Rates in June?
The interest rate decision to be made by the US Securities and Exchange Commission on June 18th is a highly anticipated moment in all markets globally. In the first half of 2025, the interest rate cut expected in the market was not met. In Powell’s statements by the FED, he stated that it was early for the interest rate cut expected by the market in the first half of 2025, that inflation was reduced in a fully controlled manner and that for this reason, there would be no rush in interest rate cuts. So what does the market expect in the interest rate decision on June 18?
- Interest Rate Reduction (60%)
As of the latest inflation data, the current inflation rate of 2.9% is approaching the FED’s target of 2%. Unemployment rate is at a reasonable level at 4.1%. Economic growth is slowing (2025 Q1 growth: 1.8%)
Market expectation: 25 basis points (0.25%) cut
- Stable interest rates (35%)
The FED may be cautious to cut interest rates as it aims for full control of inflation. Tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in energy prices pose risks. Market fluctuations by Bitcoin and Nasdaq may push the FED to act cautiously.
Market expectation: leave unchanged
- Unexpected Interest Rate Hike (5%)
The market is not expecting a rate hike. Nevertheless, if there is an unexpected increase in inflation and unemployment levels, the FED may raise interest rates again.
Experts’ Expectations
Goldman Sachs: ‘’The Fed will cut 25 basis points in June, but signals will be cautious.’’
JP Morgan: “If the inflation target is exceeded, another cut could come in 2025.
Bitcoin Analyst PlanB: ”If the Fed loosens, Bitcoin may continue to test new highs.
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