Yeliz Akmaca 
At the start of the week, investors began seeking direction amid geopolitical risks and central bank decisions. Bitcoin managed to stay strong despite the Iran-Israel tensions. Trading above $106,000, BTC found support throughout the weekend with sustained buying interest. At the same time, oil prices surged 5%, increasing concerns in the energy markets.
Gold also reached a new record high as investors sought safe-haven assets, with its price hitting $3,433. The crypto market showed signs of recovery with strong buying momentum after last week’s turbulence. Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has started a new uptrend by holding above $104,400. As a result, investors continued to turn toward risk assets ahead of the critical FOMC decision.
FOMC and BoJ Decisions to Shape Market Direction
JPMorgan analysts reminded that Iran controls 3.5% of global oil supply. The potential for Brent oil to reach $130 per barrel has raised expectations of a new wave of inflation in the markets. If this level is reached, U.S. inflation could hit 5%, possibly delaying the Fed’s rate cut plans.
Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made cautious remarks about interest rate cuts. Powell refused to take hasty action, considering that Trump’s tariff policies could drive prices higher. Still, 40% of investors in the futures market expect two rate cuts by the end of the year. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering postponing its rate hike to Q1 2025 due to problems in the bond market. According to Reuters, BoJ plans to maintain tight monetary policy during this period.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis and $130 Oil Scenario Shake the Markets
Some analysts at JPMorgan reiterated Iran’s 3.5% share in global oil supply. Combined with geopolitical risks, they forecast oil prices could exceed $130 per barrel. Such an increase could push U.S. consumer inflation close to 5%. The Kobeissi Letter emphasized that this scenario would significantly delay the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts.
Experts also defined the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the most severe geopolitical scenario. Iran could use its dominance over the strait to disrupt global energy supply.
Bitcoin continues to stay resilient amid all these developments. Investors are still in search of safe havens amid geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. BTC’s trading volume rose 14%, surpassing $40.5 billion, indicating a significant increase in market liquidity.
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