Ahmet Bedirhan Arvas 
Donald Trump stated that during the meeting with the European Union (EU) to be held in Scotland this Sunday (July 27, 2025), a final decision on a possible trade agreement would be made. According to Trump, the likelihood of reaching an agreement is approximately 50‑50, but there are “about 20 different issues” that need to be resolved at the table.
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Trump reminded that EU steel and aluminum imports currently face 50% tariffs, automotive products 25%, and other goods 10%.
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If the tariff increases can be reduced by August 1, 2025, the planned 30% customs duty could be avoided.
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A potential framework agreement, similar to the one reached with Japan, could impose a 15% base tariff on most EU goods and higher rates in critical sectors like steel and automotive.
EU’s Strategic Approach
Ursula von der Leyen stated that she believes the meeting in Scotland will be “positive” and that negotiations on behalf of the EU will continue. EU Member States have prepared €93 billion worth of retaliatory measures in case of a possible disagreement. Differences in views among countries are apparent: Germany favors a quick resolution to protect the automotive sector, while France and Spain resist in favor of a more balanced and fair deal.
| Topic | Analysis |
|---|---|
| Timing | The meeting is a critical threshold before August 1 tariffs come into effect. If no agreement is reached, the U.S.-declared 30% tariff may be applied. |
| Likelihood of Success | According to Trump, there is a 50% chance, but without resolving the 20 issues, a definitive outcome seems unlikely. |
| Economic Impact | Sectors such as automotive, steel-aluminum, and digital services tax are at risk. A tariff increase could negatively affect EU exports and global supply chains. |
| Institutional Challenges | Trump’s leader-centric negotiation approach may conflict with the EU’s collective decision-making structure; von der Leyen cannot make decisions alone, requiring approval from all member states. |
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Possible Scenarios
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If a framework agreement is reached
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A 15% base tariff could be accepted. The planned 30% tariff on August 1 would be avoided.
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A structure similar to the recent U.S.-Japan agreement might be implemented by June.
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If talks fail
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The U.S. may implement the planned 30% tariff.
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The EU could enforce billions of euros worth of retaliatory tariffs.
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In short, the Donald Trump – von der Leyen meeting in Scotland on Sunday, July 27 marks a turning point in EU–U.S. relations. If the 20 key issues—especially tariffs—are resolved, there may be a path forward; otherwise, transatlantic trade may enter a renewed period of tension.
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