Emre Yumlu 
The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision later today, and global markets are watching closely. From Bitcoin to Treasury bonds, equities to commodities, every asset class is poised for potential movement depending on what the Fed says—or doesn’t say.
No Change in Rates Anticipated
Since the start of the year, the Fed has maintained its interest rates, and analysts expect this stance to continue tonight. Market pricing currently reflects a 98% probability that the central bank will hold rates steady.
Inflation Still a Wild Card
Although inflation showed signs of retreat in 2023, a 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024 was followed by a renewed uptick in price pressures, with inflation rising back to around 3%. Recent data shows it has eased slightly to 2.7%, but trade tensions and tariff-related uncertainty could keep inflation elevated in the near term.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized that ongoing tariff concerns are a key reason for the central bank’s cautious approach to easing.
Divisions Within the Fed
Consensus remains elusive inside the Fed itself. According to major U.S. financial outlets, figures like Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman believe it’s time to begin cutting rates. Meanwhile, others argue that no reductions should take place at all throughout 2025.
The “dot plot” released in June reflected expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. However, no updated projections are expected during tonight’s meeting.
Political Tension: Powell vs. Trump
At 18:00 UTC, Fed Chair Powell will take the stage for his press conference—but interest isn’t limited to monetary policy. The restoration budget for the Fed’s headquarters has sparked controversy in Washington, and some speculate it could even jeopardize Powell’s leadership.
Last week, President Donald Trump visited the Fed building and publicly questioned the project’s cost. The tension between the two was noticeable during the visit, though it reportedly cooled off when Trump remarked, “All I really want from him is lower rates…”
Calm Before the Storm in the Markets
Markets remain unusually quiet in the lead-up to the announcement. Bitcoin is holding steady around $118,000, and volatility across digital assets has dropped significantly in recent days. U.S. Treasury yields are also little changed, reflecting market uncertainty about future rate directions and inflation trends.
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