Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin historical four-year market cycle following halving events has recently become a topic of intense debate. The rise in institutional investments strengthens the view that this model might have come to an end. Writer and investor Jason Williams noted on X that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold around 1 million BTC. Williams argued this marks the end of the four-year cycle.
Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, offered a similar perspective. Hougan stated that it is still too early to declare the cycle over without positive returns by 2026. However, he believes the cycle will eventually end in the long term. Historically, BTC price peaks occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021 after halving events. Analysts expect a similar scenario in 2025.
Pierre Rochard, CEO of Bitcoin Bond Company, suggested the four-year cycles might have ended. Rochard pointed out that 95% of Bitcoin’s supply has already been mined. He also noted that the impact of halvings on trading volume has diminished. Demand now mainly comes from retail investors, wealth management platforms adding ETPs, and corporate treasuries.
Macroeconomics and Institutional Capital Impact
Martin Burgherr, Head of Client Coverage at Sygnum Bank, said the halving cycle remains an important reference. However, macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have become equally influential on the market. Burgherr emphasized that the four-year framework is no longer the sole determinant.
In contrast, crypto analyst CRYPTOBIRB rejected claims that the four-year cycle has ended. He stated that ETFs increase market correlation, thus reinforcing this cycle. He also reminded that halving cycles are mathematically programmed and unchangeable.
Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, similarly affirmed that the cycles still hold validity. Rocca said that despite institutional presence, Bitcoin’s cyclical nature continues. The debate is expected to become clearer with the anticipated price movements in 2025.
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