Emre Yumlu 
The crypto market has recently been buzzing with debates over the possibility of a new Bitcoin bear market. David Bailey, crypto adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, argues that such a downturn may not happen for several years. Still, many analysts remain skeptical.
Institutional Interest and Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook
Bailey, the founder of Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc., stated, “This is the first time we’ve seen real institutional buy-ins.” According to him, governments, banks, insurers, corporations, and even pension funds will eventually hold Bitcoin.
“We haven’t even captured 0.01% of the total addressable market (TAM). We’re going so much higher. Dream big,” Bailey added.
He emphasized that earlier institutional involvement was merely marginal bets.
In the last two years, institutional exposure to crypto has accelerated, with Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries pushing total holdings beyond $100 billion.
Possible Risks of a Bear Market
Despite Bailey’s optimism, not all experts agree. CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital noted that crypto remains highly correlated with the stock market. If equities enter a bear phase, crypto is likely to follow.
Some venture capital firms have also warned that many corporate crypto treasuries may not survive long term, potentially triggering the next bear market.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s signals toward interest rate cuts and Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole have fueled risk appetite, boosting demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term.
Analysts Present Different Scenarios
Australian analyst Pav Hundal said markets are currently in a risk-on phase, but eventually capital could rotate back into fixed-income assets. In his view, “The path of least resistance is higher for Bitcoin,” though unexpected macro shocks could still derail momentum.
Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital suggested that the current cycle may peak around Q2 2026, followed by a mild bear market once global liquidity contracts.
However, McMillin also pointed out the possibility of avoiding a bear market altogether, drawing parallels with gold’s performance after the launch of ETFs in the early 2000s, when the asset entered an eight-year uptrend.
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