Is the Year-End Bitcoin (BTC) Peak Expectation Statistically Flawed?

One of the most common narratives in the crypto market is that Bitcoin will hit its cycle peak by the end of this year. However, some analysts argue that this belief rests on shaky statistical grounds.

PlanC: “The Q4 Peak Is a Statistical Misconception”

Crypto analyst PlanC recently criticized the idea that Bitcoin must top out in Q4, calling it statistically unsound.

“Assuming Bitcoin is guaranteed to peak at the end of this year goes against basic probability theory,” PlanC explained. He likened the logic to flipping a coin three times and getting tails, then betting everything that the fourth flip must also land tails. According to him, basing conclusions solely on three previous cycles does not constitute meaningful statistical evidence.

Are Bitcoin Halving Cycles Still Relevant?

PlanC also suggested that the traditional halving cycle model may no longer apply to Bitcoin’s trajectory. He pointed to new dynamics in the market, such as the rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the billions of dollars flowing into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“There is no fundamental reason for a peak in Q4 2025 other than psychological momentum or a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.

Q4: Historically Bitcoin’s Strongest Quarter

Still, history shows that Q4 has often been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing period. Since 2013, the fourth quarter has averaged an 85.42% return. But analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. In fact, if the halving cycle remains a factor, Bitcoin could enter a downtrend as early as October.

Diverging Expert Opinions on Bitcoin

Market experts are far from united on Bitcoin’s year-end outlook:

• Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, estimates there’s a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin reaches between $140,000 and $150,000 this year before a potential bear market in 2026.

• Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, believes the bull cycle will last longer, stating, “I’d bet 2026 is an up year.”

• On the more bullish side, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) and Joe Burnett (Director of Research at Unchained) have both predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 before the end of 2025.

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