Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed nearly 4% over the past week, trading around $115,812. While this is positive news for crypto investors, the broader U.S. economic backdrop paints a more fragile picture. Weak macroeconomic indicators have strengthened market expectations that the Fed may soon move toward interest rate cuts.
Weak Economic Data from the U.S.
One of the most closely watched developments was the release of U.S. CPI data. The headline inflation rate came in slightly above expectations, suggesting that price pressures may be more persistent than previously thought.
Earlier in the week, labor market revisions shocked analysts. Data revealed that the U.S. economy created roughly 1 million fewer jobs in the year ending March than initially reported — the largest downward revision in U.S. history.
August’s jobs report added to the concerns, showing only 22,000 new jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.3%. At the same time, initial jobless claims surged by 27,000 to 263,000, marking the highest level since October 2021.
This combination of slower growth and sticky inflation has reignited fears of stagflation.
Bitcoin and Risk Assets Push Higher
Despite these worrying signals, risk appetite in financial markets remains strong. Bitcoin broke above $116,000 over the weekend and nearly filled the CME futures gap at $117,300 left from August.
U.S. equities also reflected this optimism. The S&P 500 index notched a record close for the second consecutive day, fueled by bets on easier monetary policy. This highlights investors’ renewed interest in risk-on assets.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart continues to look constructive. Since the September low of $107,500, the price has formed a series of higher lows. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP) — a key bull market support level — has reached an all-time high of $109,668.
Rate Cut Expectations Build Momentum
All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point cut in September, with a total of three cuts expected by the end of the year.
If realized, these moves could keep risk sentiment alive and serve as a bullish catalyst for both cryptocurrencies and crypto-linked equities.
*Not Investment Advice!
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