Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin has entered a cooling phase, falling to its lowest level in four weeks as long-term holders take profits and ETF inflows slow down. On-chain data highlights increasing signals of potential cycle fatigue across the market.
Long-Term Holders Lock in Massive Profits
Recent on-chain metrics reveal that long-term investors have realized profits on 3.4 million BTC in recent weeks. This magnitude of profit-taking has historically aligned with previous cycle tops, raising concerns that the market could be losing momentum.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have decelerated, showing weaker-than-expected demand following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts.
Breaking Below $112K: Testing Key Support Levels
Bitcoin dipped below the critical $112,000 mark, sliding as low as $108,700 according to Coinbase data — its lowest level in a month.
The $107,500 level, last tested in early September, is once again coming into focus. Analysts warn that renewed selling pressure around this area could trigger stop-loss cascades, accelerating downside momentum.
Are We Entering a Cooling Phase?
Profit-to-loss ratios show that more than 90% of moved coins were in profit at three different points in this cycle. Historically, such extremes have marked major market peaks. Analysts suggest that a cooling phase may now be unfolding as the market digests these profit-taking waves.
Stress Signals: Loss-Making Sales on the Rise
Some investors have started selling their Bitcoin at a loss. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has been hovering close to 1 — a critical level that often signals stress in the market.
Historically, SOPR dips below 1 during bull runs have indicated seller exhaustion and preceded rebounds. In contrast, rejections at or above 1 in bear markets often pointed to renewed selling pressure.
Additionally, the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator is approaching zero, suggesting newer investors may be cutting losses quickly — a dynamic that could fuel forced liquidations.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Unless institutional demand and retail participation converge again, analysts caution that the risk of a deeper correction remains elevated.
Still, some market voices remain optimistic. With macroeconomic pressures expected to ease later this year, a Q4 recovery is seen as a possibility. In the short term, however, reclaiming $115,000 will be crucial for restoring market confidence and re-establishing upward momentum.
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