Emre Yumlu 
The spotlight is once again on Bitcoin (BTC) as it approaches a critical milestone. Analysts suggest that if the world’s leading cryptocurrency establishes a firm breakout above $120,000, it could quickly surge to $150,000 in the near term.
Institutional Demand and Gold’s Role
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes Bitcoin could set a new all-time high before the year ends, reaching $150,000. He points out that the surge in gold as a safe-haven asset is fueling institutional appetite for Bitcoin, adding further momentum to the market.
According to Edwards, surpassing the psychological threshold of $120,000 may trigger a rapid rally toward $150,000, potentially unfolding within days.
In the past week, Bitcoin has gained more than 6%, reclaiming the $118,500 level for the first time since mid-August.
The $200K Outlook
While Edwards’ forecast is bullish, some analysts are even more optimistic. Several market experts suggest that this cycle could push Bitcoin above $200,000.
André Dragosch, Head of Research in Europe at Bitwise Asset Management, highlights the potential impact of including cryptocurrencies in U.S. 401(k) retirement plans. He estimates that this could unlock as much as $122 billion in new capital. Even a modest 1% allocation by retirement managers could be enough to propel Bitcoin beyond $200,000 by year’s end.
Market Cycles and Investor Psychology
Edwards also emphasizes the relevance of the four-year cycle theory, which has long been a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s market behavior. He describes it as increasingly “self-fulfilling,” with investors positioning themselves based on cyclical expectations.
He notes that the probability of three strong months to close the year is “just over 50%.” However, he cautions that the real driving force remains institutional buying, and any slowdown in that demand could significantly alter his outlook.
Historical Trends Back the Bullish Case
Bitcoin’s track record during the final quarter of the year strengthens the bullish narrative. Historical data shows average monthly returns of around 20% in October, a remarkable 46% in November, and a modest 4% in December.
Technical indicators also reinforce the positive sentiment. Analysts are pointing to an emerging golden cross pattern, which may act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price to target $150,000 in the fourth quarter.
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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