Emre Yumlu 
The long-debated question of whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is still intact has resurfaced. According to Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific region at crypto exchange Gemini, while Bitcoin may not follow its historical patterns exactly, it is “very likely” that some form of the cycle will continue.
A Cycle Rooted in Human Emotion
Ahmed believes the foundation of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle lies in investor psychology. He explained that market participants often get overly excited and over-leverage, which eventually leads to a sharp correction before the market stabilizes again. For this reason, even if the cycle doesn’t repeat identically, it is still expected to persist in some variation.
The Role of Institutional Investors
Another factor highlighted by Ahmed is the growing presence of institutional players in the crypto market. While this involvement could help reduce extreme volatility, he noted that complete stability is unlikely, as human emotions continue to drive much of the market’s behavior.
Could Bitcoin Peak This Month?
There is still ongoing debate among analysts about whether the cycle remains valid. In July, crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggested that if Bitcoin mirrors the 2020 cycle, the market could reach its peak in October 2025 — roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
Historical data supports this possibility. Since 2013, the fourth quarter (Q4) has consistently been Bitcoin’s strongest, with an average return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin Nears All-Time High
Bitcoin has climbed 11.5% over the past week, reaching $123,850. This puts the price just shy of its all-time high of $124,100, recorded on August 14.
“2026 Could Be a Bullish Year”
On the other hand, not all experts believe Bitcoin will follow its past cycles. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently stated that he doesn’t expect the price action to mirror previous patterns. Instead, he predicted that 2026 could be a strong upward year, adding that the market may be entering several years of overall growth.
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