Arthur Hayes: The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Officially Dead!

One of the most debated ideas in the crypto world — the “4-year Bitcoin cycle” — may no longer hold true. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s price movements are not governed by halving events, but rather by global monetary policy and liquidity conditions.

“The 4-Year Pattern Won’t Work This Time”

In his latest blog post, Hayes pointed out that many investors still expect Bitcoin to follow its historical four-year rhythm, predicting a market top based on previous bull cycles. However, he believes this approach is now outdated.

“As we approach the anniversary of this fourth cycle, traders are eager to apply the old pattern — but this time it will fail,” Hayes wrote.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s price cycles are shaped by the availability and flow of money — mainly the U.S. dollar (USD) and Chinese yuan (CNY) — rather than arbitrary timelines or institutional adoption phases.

He emphasized that past bull markets didn’t end because of time, but because monetary conditions tightened globally.

Why This Cycle Is Different

Hayes outlined several reasons why the current market cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones:

• U.S. Treasury liquidity boost: The Treasury has injected around $2.5 trillion into markets by drawing down funds from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo (RRP) program.

• “Run it hot” economic policy: Former U.S. President Donald Trump aims to stimulate growth through looser monetary policies to manage national debt.

• Bank deregulation plans: The U.S. is preparing to ease restrictions on banks, encouraging more lending and credit expansion.

• Rate cuts despite inflation: Despite inflation still being above target, the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts. According to CME futures data, there’s a 94% probability of another cut in October and an 80% chance in December.

These factors, Hayes suggests, are combining to create a liquidity-rich environment — the perfect condition for Bitcoin’s continued rise.

What Really Drives Bitcoin’s Market Cycles

Hayes connects Bitcoin’s historical bull markets to three distinct periods of monetary expansion:

1. The first bull run (2013): Fueled by Federal Reserve quantitative easing and China’s credit boom, it ended when both economies began tightening liquidity.

2. The “ICO cycle” (2017): Driven by yuan devaluation and massive Chinese credit expansion, it collapsed once China slowed credit growth and the dollar strengthened.

3. The “COVID cycle” (2020–2021): Powered primarily by U.S. dollar liquidity while China remained conservative. The rally ended when the Fed turned hawkish in late 2021.

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