Emre Yumlu 
Federal Reserve officials have reignited discussions around potential interest rate cuts, setting the stage for the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of October. Recent remarks from key members suggest that a more accommodative monetary policy could be on the horizon, fueling new optimism in financial markets.
Waller: “A 25 Basis Point Cut Is on the Table”
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that a 25 basis point rate cut could be a realistic option. Highlighting ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook, Waller stated, “We can take a small step and see what happens to get a better sense of direction.”
He also noted that internal Fed discussions are progressing smoothly and that there has been little change in the overall economic picture. “Lowering rates seems like the right move; not much has changed in the last six weeks,” he added, signaling support for a cautious easing approach.
Miran: “The Disinflation Process Has Begun” So Rate Cuts?
Meanwhile, Fed official Miran expressed confidence that the U.S. economy is entering a period of meaningful disinflation. “We expect to see a significant disinflation process over the next year,” Miran said. He further suggested that two more rate cuts this year would be a realistic scenario, reinforcing expectations that the Fed is gradually pivoting away from its tight policy stance.
Markets Price in an October Rate Cut
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are overwhelmingly betting on a 0.25% rate cut at the October 29 meeting, assigning it a 96.7% probability. The likelihood of rates remaining unchanged stands at only 3.3%.
These projections make it clear that investors are already pricing in a rate cut, with market sentiment leaning strongly toward monetary easing. With just 13 days left until the next FOMC meeting, all eyes are now on how the Fed will balance its commitment to price stability with growing pressure to support economic momentum.
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