Emre Yumlu 
The recent downturn in the crypto market suggests that some investors are still trading according to Bitcoin traditional four-year cycle. Experts argue that this mindset may be partly responsible for the current selling pressure across the market.
What Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle?
Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a pattern linked to the “halving” — a built-in event that occurs roughly every four years, reducing miner rewards by half. This mechanism has often been followed by sharp price increases and subsequent corrections, shaping how investors approach the market.
However, analysts now believe that as the crypto industry matures, the classic four-year cycle may no longer be as relevant or influential as it once was.
Selling Pressure Builds
In the past week, Bitcoin has fallen by around 9%, Ethereum by 6%, and XRP by 15%, while several altcoins have experienced even steeper declines. This pullback has been partially attributed to renewed geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump announced fresh tariffs on China, triggering a record $19 billion in liquidations across leveraged positions.
Messari analyst Matthew Nay said that part of the sell-off is driven by “a cohort of traders still clinging to the four-year cycle.” Nay explained, “If you look at the timing, it’s almost exactly four years since the last market peak. Add in trade war uncertainty, and you have traders defending their positions more aggressively.”
Stocktwits analyst Jonathan Morgan added that much of this activity reflects “mechanical selling” — investors who buy before the halving and sell when Bitcoin doesn’t immediately surge afterward.
Is the Cycle Still Relevant?
Jasper De Maere, a strategist at Wintermute, believes this strategy is outdated: “The halving doesn’t move the market like it used to. Miner rewards are tiny compared to total trading volume now.”
Similarly, Nay expects Bitcoin to return to its all-time highs before the end of the year, citing institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and deeper integration with traditional finance as factors breaking the old pattern.
Morgan agrees, saying, “The halving model is a relic of Bitcoin’s early days. Today, ETFs, institutional flows, and derivatives have far more influence.”
In short, while the four-year cycle remains an iconic part of Bitcoin’s history, analysts believe the crypto ecosystem has evolved — and the market may now be writing a new playbook for the digital age.
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