Ahmet Bedirhan Arvas 
Looking at Donald Trump’s latest statements, he seems firmly convinced that China will eventually come to the negotiating table. “I believe China will make a deal with us.” This statement reflects Trump’s desire to project a conciliatory tone in his relations with China. However, tensions between the two countries have increased this year, particularly over rare earth export controls. As China tightens its grip on these strategic resources, the U.S. is preparing to respond with new tariffs.
Taking this dynamic into account, Trump warned, “If China doesn’t trade with us, they will be in big trouble.” This statement carries a strong diplomatic message — an attempt to signal that the U.S. can build alternative markets to counter China’s influence.
Tariff Pressure and Reciprocal Moves
Things are far from simple on the economic front. Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements. China, on the other hand, has taken a firm stance and is preparing countermeasures.
This situation creates a tension line between Trump’s strategy of “using China’s fear to bring them to the table” and China’s resistance moves. Yet Trump remains confident, saying, “China respects us right now.” Naturally, such tariffs will impact not only China’s economy but also global companies. A Reuters analysis revealed that global companies are facing costs exceeding $35 billion due to these tariffs. In other words, aggressive economic pressure mechanisms are pushing trade relations into a fragile balance.
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China Visit Planned for 2026
Perhaps the most notable announcement from Trump was that he had been invited to China and plans to visit in early 2026. The visit is reportedly aimed at achieving a “fair trade deal” with Xi Jinping. This trip is not just a symbolic diplomatic step but also carries concrete expectations. Trump aims to establish an environment of compromise that could weaken China’s control over rare earth resources and lead to the gradual withdrawal of tariffs on Chinese goods. A potential deal could boost trade volumes for both nations, but it would need to be managed with a “win-win” approach.
In recent days, Trump also made striking comments about Taiwan, saying he does not believe China intends to invade the island. However, this issue remains one of the most sensitive topics overshadowing bilateral relations.
While China views Taiwan as part of its “motherland,” the U.S. and some allies support Taiwan’s democratic government. In this scenario, trade negotiations and security concerns become deeply intertwined. Trump prefers to emphasize U.S. military superiority, stating, “No one can compete with us in this regard.” Yet, even though he claims there will be no invasion, Taiwan will inevitably remain on the discussion table between the two powers.
Possible Developments and Risks
Positive Scenario: A concrete agreement could be signed between Trump and Xi. China may show flexibility regarding rare earth export restrictions, while the U.S. could gradually lift tariffs. This would ease pressure on global supply chains and provide some relief for corporations.
Risky Scenario: If China fails to meet Trump’s expectations, the 100% tariffs will take effect, further escalating tensions. Meanwhile, if the Taiwan issue turns into a crisis, diplomatic tensions could rise sharply — affecting not only the U.S. and China but also the entire Asia-Pacific region.
World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for de-escalation between the U.S. and China, warning that a long-term “decoupling” between the two economies would harm global growth. This situation concerns not only Trump’s strategy but also the broader stability of the global economic system.
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