Emre Yumlu 
According to crypto analyst Willy Woo, the next cryptocurrency bear market could be far more severe than previous cycles. Unlike past downturns tied to Bitcoin halving events or changes in global money supply, Woo believes the next crash could be driven by a global business cycle downturn — something the crypto industry has never faced before.
A Cycle Never Seen in Bitcoin’s History
Historically, Bitcoin’s market movements have been shaped by two overlapping cycles: the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle and the expansion of global M2 money supply. Central banks have historically injected liquidity into the economy in four-year intervals, which has coincided with Bitcoin’s bull markets.
However, Woo argues that the upcoming bear market will be shaped by a “cycle people have forgotten” — the business cycle. “The last major business cycle contractions occurred in 2001 and 2008, before Bitcoin even existed,” Woo noted. This means that Bitcoin’s behavior during a traditional economic recession has yet to be tested. He added, “If we get a business cycle downturn like 2001 or 2008, it will show whether Bitcoin acts more like tech stocks or like gold.”
Business Cycles and the Liquidity Effect
A business cycle downturn, also known as a recession, occurs when GDP declines, unemployment rises, and consumer spending weakens — signaling a contraction in economic activity. Woo emphasized that crypto markets do not operate in isolation; they are deeply influenced by liquidity conditions in the global economy.
For instance, during the dot-com crash of 2001, U.S. stock markets fell by over 50% in two years. Similarly, the 2008 financial crisis triggered a 56% plunge in the S&P 500, driven by collapsing credit markets and widespread financial instability. These events show how powerful liquidity shocks can reshape entire asset classes — including, potentially, digital assets like Bitcoin.
Rising Risks for the Next Cycle
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tracks employment, income, industrial production, and retail sales to identify potential recessions. Although there was a brief pandemic-related downturn in 2020, no major recession appears imminent at the moment. Still, persistent trade tariffs and slowing global growth could weigh on markets throughout the first half of 2026.
Woo concluded that markets are inherently speculative — they price in future expectations, including money supply shifts. “Either Bitcoin is signaling that global markets have peaked, or it’s about to catch up,” he said.
In other words, the fate of the next crypto bear market may not hinge solely on Bitcoin’s halving cycles but on the broader rhythm of the global economy.
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