Ahmet Bedirhan Arvas 
The US government is preparing to launch an official investigation to determine whether China has fulfilled its commitments under the “Phase 1” trade agreement signed in 2020. According to a report by the New York Times, citing sources familiar with the matter, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will conduct the review under the “Section 301” procedure.
What Is the Phase 1 Agreement?
Signed in January 2020 between the United States and China, the “Phase 1” trade deal required Beijing to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of goods and services from the U.S. within two years, strengthen intellectual property protections, and provide greater market access for American companies. However, according to U.S. officials, China has failed to meet a significant portion of these targets. Bloomberg Economics data indicates that China’s purchases under the agreement have fallen short by approximately 40%. Experts note that the pandemic and global supply chain disruptions have further exacerbated the situation.
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What Does the Investigation Mean?
The “Section 301” investigation is known as one of the toughest tools used by the U.S. to counter unfair trade practices. If it is determined that China violated its obligations, Washington could impose new tariffs, import restrictions, or sanctions.
A USTR spokesperson told Reuters, “The United States remains committed to taking all necessary steps to uphold fair trade principles.” Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, stating that “Beijing will not accept unilateral trade pressure from Washington.”
Tensions Rise Again
In recent months, trade tensions between the two nations have intensified once again. In September, China restricted the export of rare earth elements, while the U.S. imposed new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and battery components originating from China. Additionally, at the start of 2025, China failed to renew export registrations for certain U.S. meat processing plants, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the food trade.
Experts say the timing of the investigation is no coincidence. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet in November, and Washington may be seeking to gain a stronger negotiating position ahead of the talks.
Dr. Mark Feldman, an international trade expert at Georgetown University, commented:
“This investigation is more than just an economic move—it’s a diplomatic message. The U.S. is telling China, ‘There’s a price to pay when you don’t honor your commitments.’” Analysts warn that renewed trade tensions could put pressure on agriculture, energy, and technology stocks globally, with potential volatility expected in Asian markets if new U.S. tariffs are introduced.
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