Emre Yumlu 
Bitcoin has entered November — a month that has historically brought the highest returns for the leading cryptocurrency. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 42.5% increase during November. If history repeats itself, this trend could potentially push BTC above $160,000 this month. However, analysts emphasize that while seasonal patterns are important, macroeconomic dynamics will also play a decisive role.
November: Historically Bitcoin’s Most Bullish Month
According to Markus Thielen from 10x Research, seasonal trends should be considered in combination with broader economic factors:
“Seasonal charts certainly matter, but they must be evaluated alongside macroeconomic developments,” Thielen noted.
Expectations for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China are contributing to a bullish outlook. Nevertheless, uncertainties surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing tariff policies continue to cast a shadow over economic stability.
U.S.–China Trade Tensions Begin to Ease
A recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was viewed as a step forward in reducing trade frictions. Trump described the talks in South Korea as “excellent.”
As part of the discussions, Trump agreed to scale back certain tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing taking stronger action against fentanyl trade, resuming soybean imports from the U.S., and suspending rare earth export restrictions for a year.
These developments come after the severe $19 billion liquidation wave on Oct. 11, which triggered a sharp market decline. Still, Georgetown University professor Dennis Wilder warned that the meeting merely represented “a pause” in the trade war rather than a lasting resolution.
Fed Rate Cuts and End of Quantitative Tightening
Earlier this week, Federal Reserve officials approved another quarter-point rate cut, lowering borrowing costs to their lowest level in three years. According to CME’s FedWatch data, traders currently assign a 63% probability to another rate cut at the December 10 meeting.
Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that another reduction is “not a foregone conclusion,” the central bank’s decision to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1 is seen as bullish for risk assets. Ending QT effectively halts liquidity withdrawal from the economy — a move that historically benefits markets like Bitcoin.
Government Shutdown Impacting Crypto Regulation
The U.S. government shutdown has now stretched into its fifth week, nearing record territory as political gridlock continues. President Trump has blamed the Senate’s filibuster rule for the stalemate and urged Republicans to remove it, calling it “the nuclear option.”
Analysts note that resolving the shutdown is crucial not only for the broader economy but also for the crypto sector. The reopening of the government is seen as a key step toward finalizing several Bitcoin ETF approvals and advancing the CLARITY Act — a major bill aimed at establishing clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets.
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