Emre Yumlu 
As the year draws to a close, Bitcoin appears to be losing momentum, showing clear signs of exhaustion in the market. In early October, well-known analysts Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. However, recent market trends suggest that such an ambitious target may no longer be realistic.
Market Fatigue Becomes Evident
According to several crypto market experts, Bitcoin’s recent slowdown indicates that the aggressive price expectations for this year may fail to materialize. ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan noted that Bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $125,000 in 2025, pointing out that this figure sits just below the October 4 all-time high of $126,000.
Morgan emphasized that for Bitcoin to reenter a strong bull phase, it must first break its correlation with political developments, particularly with statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump. As long as this connection persists, market reactions are expected to remain volatile and unpredictable.
Long-Term Holders Increase Selling Pressure
Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell sharply to $100,800, marking its lowest level in four months. Analysts from Bitfinex reported that long-term holders have continued selling, creating sustained structural pressure on the market. They warned that unless Bitcoin quickly rebounds above $116,000, the asset could face deeper declines heading into the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 21 out of 100 on Tuesday, signaling “extreme fear” among investors. This sharp decline reflects the growing uncertainty and negative sentiment that currently dominate the crypto market.
Mixed Outlook for 2026
Despite the short-term weakness, opinions differ regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory beyond 2025. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that 2026 could be a strong recovery year for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for another growth cycle.
In contrast, financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth argued that 2026 might resemble previous mid-cycle bear markets, suggesting that a downward trend could reemerge. Veteran trader Peter Brandt also cautioned that Bitcoin may fall as low as $60,000, signaling further downside risk.
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